It feels like the same few teams make the College Football Playoff (CFP) every year, but that isn’t always the case. LSU wasn’t a favorite to make the CFP in 2020 and still got there. In that spirit, here are darkhorse contenders for the College Football Playoff.
Note: Odds to win the CFP Championship must be 25/1 or worse. Odds found here. Last season, Cincinnati went from this list to the College Football Playoff.
Utah Utes (50/1)
Utah has been near the CFP talk over the last few seasons, but not exactly in those talks. They have made two straight Rose Bowls and return 12 total starters. With Cameron Rising back at quarterback after helping the Utes rank 11th in scoring, the offense has some potential. The defense ranked 26th last season, but return some key players, including safety Cole Bishop.
Last season, Utah lost on the road at Florida and at UCLA. They play both those teams at home this season. The Utes do have a tough road game at Baylor in the nonconference schedule along with games at USC and at Washington in conference. They do have Oregon at home as well for another tough game. Utah has a brutal schedule, but if they can come out of it with just one loss, they could be looking at their first CFP appearance.
Washington Huskies (40/1)
The Huskies were able to win 11 games last season and are looking to make the CFP for the second time in school history. They bring back 14 starters and most importantly Michael Penix at quarterback. He led an offensive attack that scored 39.7 points per game last season and if the offensive line holds up, they could put up similar numbers. While the defense was just average last season, they do have seven starters back and could feature a great pass rush between Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui.
Washington also has a tough schedule to get through, which is probably why their odds to win the whole thing aren’t great. They play Boise State, Oregon and Utah at home. The Huskies have to go on the road to play Michigan State and USC. It will take a lot of improvement on the defensive side of the ball and some key road wins, but the Huskies could find themselves in the mix at the end of the season.
Oregon Ducks (35/1)
Oregon was able to win 10 games for the second straight season in 2022. They return 12 starters from that team, including quarterback Bo Nix. After a tumultuous couple of seasons at Auburn, Nix played really well for the Ducks last season. They’ll have plenty of new faces on the offensive line who will need to hold up. On defense, the Ducks ranked 74th last season, so they’ll need improvement on that front, which could be aided by Alabama-transfer Khyree Jackson at cornerback.
Like the other two Pac-12 teams already mentioned, it is a tough schedule for Oregon. They have road games against Texas Tech, Washington and Utah. At home, the Ducks will face USC in a big game. They probably have the easiest schedule compared to the other two Pac-12 teams listed, but will need to win some tough road games.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (30/1)
Notre Dame started off last season slowly, but really finished the season well with a 9-4 record in Marcus Freeman’s first year as coach. They ranked 97th in passing last season, so they hit the transfer portal to land Sam Hartman to improve that feature. He has seven returning starters to work with, including All-American candidate Joe Alt. Defensively, the team ranked 38th last season and has eight starters back on that side of the ball. Corners Benjamin Morrison and Cam Hart make a pretty good duo that can help the Fighting Irish improve.
The Fighting Irish have some key road games against NC State and Clemson. At home, they have big games against Ohio State and USC. For them to make the CFP, they’ll have to beat either Ohio State and USC and escape with just one loss. The passing offense could open things up for Notre Dame and get them a step closer to the CFP than last season.
Penn State Nittany Lions (25/1)
Penn State won 11 games last season and showed that they had plenty of young talent for future seasons. Six starters return on offense including running back Nick Singleton and left tackle Olu Fashanu who are some of the best players at their position. For Penn State to truly compete, the Nittany Lions will need new quarterback Drew Allar to step up after he played sparingly last season. The defense ranked 10th in the country and brings back seven starters. They also have an impact pass rusher coming in with Chop Robinson, who should make an impact.
The Nittany Lions will also have some tough games on their schedule. They host West Virginia, Iowa and Michigan. Penn State will have to travel to Illinois, Ohio Sate and Michigan State. There is a possibility that Nittany Lions can upset Ohio State or Michigan and finish the season with one loss. If they can win the tiebreaker scenarios and get in the Big Ten Championship, or get in outright, they could be in the College Football Playoff.
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