Iyiphi inhlanganisela efanelekile yokutshalwa kwezimali kwendabuko kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kwe-crypto?
Ngenkathi i-bitcoin nokunye ukutshalwa kwezimali kwe-crypto kunikeza amathuba okubuyisela imali esele, nakho kubambe ubungozi obungaphezulu. Ngo Ijenali ye-Bitcoin Market, sihlose isu lokutshala imali elinokulinganisela elinciphisa izingozi ngangokunokwenzeka.
Ukusisiza ukuthi sithole iphothifoliyo efanelekile, siphendukela kuyo Ithiyori Yesimanje Yephothifoliyo (MPT).
I-MPT i mayelana nokuzuza ibhalansi elungile phakathi kwengozi nomvuzo ngokuhlukahluka. Kunokuba singene "konke" ku-bitcoin, silinganisela ukuguquguquka okusendle kwe-crypto nokutshalwa kwezimali kwendabuko okwengeziwe. I-MPT isisiza ukuthi sithole imiksi efanele.
Kulesi sihloko, sizohlola izinhlobo ezimbili zabantu abatshalizimali: i umtshalizimali olinganiselayo futhi crypto bro. Ubani owinile? Spoiler: nguyena osebenzisa indlela ye-MPT.
Iyini I-Modern Portfolio Theory?
Kafushane, i-MPT iphakamisa lokho ukuhlukahluka kuyisihluthulelo sokwandisa imbuyiselo kuyilapho unciphisa ubungozi.
Ungacabanga ngakho njengokulungiselela uhambo olude lapho kufanele ulungele zonke izinhlobo zesimo sezulu. Ubungapakisha isambulela, i-sunscreen, nejakhethi efudumele.
Ngokufanayo, ukuhlukanisa iphothifoliyo yakho yokutshala imali usebenzisa isu le-MPT kusho ukulungiselela "izimo zezulu" ezihlukahlukene zezomnotho, kusukela ekushiseni kwenkunzi ye-crypto kuya ebusika obubandayo be-crypto.
Ngokwaba kuzo zonke izigaba zempahla ezihlukene, ungakwazi ukusebenzisa inzuzo yezimpahla eziguquguqukayo njenge-bitcoin, kuyilapho uvikela ekwehleni kwemakethe okulindelekile.
Ubani Odale i-MPT?
I-Modern portfolio theory yethulwa ngusomnotho waseMelika u-Harry Markowitz ngo-1952 ngo-XNUMX iphepha elinesihloko esithi “Portfolio Selection.” UMarkowitz kamuva wathola uMklomelo KaNobel ngomsebenzi wakhe kule ndlela yokutshala imali.
Ucele iphothifoliyo ehlukahlukene ezonikeza ukuchayeka ezigabeni ezihlukene zempahla, njengamasheya ezinkampani, amabhondi, izindlu, izimpahla, kanye nezikhwama zehedge.
Ukube wayazi nge-crypto, cishe ubezokwabela ingxenye ethile yephothifoliyo ehlukahlukene kuleli klasi elisha lempahla. Lokho kungenxa yokuthi ukuhlobana okuphansi kwe-crypto nokutshalwa kwezimali kwendabuko kusiza ukunciphisa ubungozi.
Thatha, isibonelo, ukuhlobana kwe-BTC nenkomba ye-S&P 500, inkomba ye-NASDAQ, negolide:
Eshadini elingenhla, siyabona ukuthi i-S&P ne-NASDAQ zihlobene kakhulu, ngakho-ke zinikeza ukuhlukahluka okuncane. Igolide, nokho, alihlotshaniswa namasheya ngakho lingasebenza njengesivikelo: lapho amasheya ehla, igolide lingakhuphuka (ngokuphambene nalokho).
UMarkowitz wagomela ngokuthi izindlela zokuhlukahluka zingahluka. Isibonelo, iphothifoliyo ingase ithembele kumamodeli okwabiwa kwempahla, amamodeli wokwabiwa kwemboni, amamodeli wokwabiwa kwemboni, noma amamodeli wokwabiwa kwendawo.
Umgomo oyinhloko we-MPT uku wandise imbuyiselo ngenkathi unciphisa ubungozi.
Izimali ezihlanganyelwayo eziningi e-US zilandela imihlahlandlela ye-MPT ukuze kukhuliswe ukusebenza kwamaphothifoliyo azo.
Umbono wethu wephothifoliyo ebhalansile enenani elincane elabelwe i-crypto usekelwe kumbono wesimanje wephothifoliyo.
I-Modern Portfolio Theory in Action
Ake sihlole amasampuli amabili abatshalizimali futhi sibone ukuthi ubani owinayo esikhathini eside:
The Balanced Investor
Cabanga ngo-Alice, umtshali-zimali olinganiselayo. Ungukaputeni ongumakad’ ebona ohamba olwandle olupholile, olunesivunguvungu nomkhumbi ohlonyiswe kahle.
Isibonelo, usebenzisa yethu "Amakholwa eBlockchain” isu lephothifoliyo, elinikeza amasheya endabuko (65%), amabhondi (32.5%), kanye nocezu oluncane lwe-bitcoin (2.5%).
Le ngxube imenza akwazi ukukhula ngamandla ezimali zedijithali kuyilapho eqinisa iphothifoliyo yakhe nokuzinza kwezimpahla zendabuko.
Le ndlela inezinzuzo eziningi, njenge:
- Ukuzinza phakathi kokuntengantenga okuphezulu kwemakethe ye-crypto kanye nesiyaluyalu.
- Ukusheshisa ukuntengantenga kwephothifoliyo.
- Gxila ekukhuleni kwesikhathi eside.
I-Crypto Bro
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, sinoBob, i-crypto bro eqagela ngentengo yezimpahla ze-crypto, ezama ukuthola uhlamvu lwemali olukhulu olulandelayo. Nakuba iphothifoliyo yakhe ihlukahlukene, iphethe izinto eziningi eziyingozi—Cishe ingxenye yesithathu inikezelwe kuma-memecoins afana ne-DOGE, Shibu Inu, dogwifhat. Ngakho-ke, ngenkathi izimpahla zihluka, ingozi ayikho, futhi ngaphandle kwe-chunk enkulu ye-ETH yabo ayikuningi ukumunca ukuntengantenga.
Esimweni esihle kakhulu, iphothifoliyo yakhe yabela isabelo sebhubesi ku-Ethereum. Kodwa-ke, abatshalizimali abaningi be-crypto bajaha izinzuzo ezisheshayo, ukubheja ezimpahleni ze-crypto ze-riskier, njengezinhlamvu zemali ze-meme, ezingenalusizo kanye nezisekelo zokuzisekela.
Ubani Owina Esikhathini Eside?
Iphothifoliyo ka-Alice ehlukahlukene ihlangabezana nokuguquguquka okuphansi. Ukuzinza kokutshalwa kwezimali kwendabuko kunciphisa ukulahlekelwa kwakhe ngesikhathi sokwehla kwezimakethe ze-crypto. Ngaleso sikhathi, ukuchayeka kwakhe kwe-crypto kunikeza ukukhuphuka okukhulu ngesikhathi sokutholwa kwemakethe kanye nokugijima kwezinkunzi.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, u-Bob ubhekene nokugibela i-rollercoaster. Inani lephothifoliyo yakhe lenyuka ngesikhathi sokukhula kwemakethe ye-crypto kodwa lagcina lehla phakathi nomjikelezo wokushintshashintsha, lasula izinzuzo zangaphambilini. Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi amasu angcono esikhathi eside angaba khona kunokubeka wonke amaqanda kubhasikidi owodwa njenge-crypto.
Ukusebenzisa i-MPT ku-Crypto Investments
Imakethe ye-crypto inikeze amathuba amahle kubatshalizimali bokuqala abanamathela "ekubambeni" kunokuqagela.
Isibonelo, i-bitcoin izuze ngaphezu kwe-10,000% phakathi neminyaka eyishumi edlule.
Kodwa-ke, iye yadlula ekuguquguqukeni kwentengo okungalawuleki, futhi abatshalizimali abaningi baye balingeka ukuthi bathengise ukuze bathole inzuzo noma baphume phakathi nemikhuba ye-bearish yezinyanga eziningi. Akulula ukuba i-hodler.
Ngokuphambene, izimakethe zendabuko nazo ziye zenyuka ngenani kodwa zizinzile kakhulu futhi zilinganisela. Inkomba ye-S&P 500 (SPY) ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-150% ngesikhathi esifanayo.
Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwemali engenayo engashintshi, njengamabhondi kahulumeni, kunikeze kakhulu izinzuzo ezingezinhle phakathi neshumi leminyaka eledlule, kodwa zisanikeza ukuzinza kuphothifoliyo ehlukahlukene. Ngokwesibonelo, I-SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (SPTL) lehle ngo-15% ngesikhathi esifanayo kodwa alibonisi ukuguquguquka okukhulu.
Sicabanga ukuthi indlela engcono kakhulu yabatshalizimali abangazifaki engozini ukucabangela izimiso ze-MPT futhi bakhe iphothifoliyo ehlukahlukene evezwe ezimpahleni ze-crypto. Indlela yethu esiyikhethayo:
- Cishe 2/3 ku-ETF yenkomba yesitoko
- Cishe 1/3 ku-ETF yenkomba yebhondi
- Ucezu nje (phakathi kuka-2-10%) ube yi-bitcoin noma impahla ye-crypto.
Le ngxube ihlose ukwenza imali ekukhuleni kwemakethe yamasheya, ukuphepha kwamabhondi, kanye namandla okuqhuma kwe-bitcoin.
I-Modern Portfolio Theory kanye ne-Baby Believers Portfolio
Sihlole inguqulo yethu Baby Believers Portfolio njengokuhlola. Sisebenzise idatha yeminyaka emihlanu edlule ku-SPY (amasheya), i-SPTL (amabhondi), ne-BTC (bitcoin) ukuze sithole iphothifoliyo "elungile", sisebenzisa ifomula ye-MPT yokulinganisa ubungozi kanye nembuyiselo.
“Esabelweni esifanele” (esiboniswe ngo-X obomvu), sine:
- Kulindeleke imbuyiselo yonyaka: 32.6%
- Ukuguquguquka konyaka: 2.3%
- I-Sharpe Isilinganiso: 13.34
Nganoma isiphi isilinganiso, imbuyiselo yonyaka engu-32.6% iyinkanyezi, ikakhulukazi uma uzibeka kuphela ekuguquguqukeni konyaka okungu-2.3% kuphothifoliyo. Kuyisilinganiso esihle kakhulu sobungozi/somvuzo, njengoba kufakazelwa i-Sharpe Ratio ephezulu uma kuqhathaniswa—ngokuvamile, ukuphakama kwesilinganiso se-Sharpe, kukhanga kakhulu imbuyiselo elungiswe ubungozi.
Nokho, ake sibheke isabelo sephothifoliyo esinconywe yile modeli ye-MPT:
- I-BTC: I-72.5% yephothifoliyo
- IZIHLOLI: 27.5% wephothifoliyo
- I-SPTL: 0.0% wephothifoliyo
Lokhu kuhluke kakhulu endleleni yethu evamile, cishe izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zabelwe i-crypto! Kodwa-ke, ukuguquguquka kwaminyaka yonke kwalephothifoliyo esindayo ye-BTC bekuzohlala kunengqondo.
Khumbula: lena imodeli ebheka emuva esekelwe ekusebenzeni komlando, futhi ukusebenza kwangaphambilini akubonisi imiphumela yesikhathi esizayo.
Abatshalizimali abaningi abanaso isiqiniseko sokubeka u-75% wemali abayilondolozile ku-bitcoin, yingakho Amakholwa eBlockchain amamodeli anikeza enye indlela yokukusiza ulale kangcono ebusuku.
I-Takeaway yabatshalizimali
Ithiyori yephothifoliyo yesimanje isu elisebenza nezigaba ezahlukahlukene zempahla, ikakhulukazi ekutshalweni kwezimali kwesikhathi eside. Igqamisa amandla okuhlukahluka ekufinyeleleni ibhalansi efanele phakathi kwengozi nomvuzo.
Nakuba iphothifoliyo “elungile” kule minyaka emihlanu edlule kungenzeka ukuthi ibingu-75% bitcoin kanye no-25% wamasheya, sinamathela esu lethu lokutshala imali elilandelanayo locezu oluncane nje lwezimpahla ze-crypto, ezisahlula abatshalizimali bendabuko. ngokude.
Bhalisela i-newsletter ye-Bitcoin Market Journal ukuze uthole izibuyekezo ezijwayelekile mayelana nokusebenza kwephothifoliyo yethu yamakholwa eBlockchain.
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- Source: https://www.bitcoinmarketjournal.com/modern-portfolio-theory/
