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Risk appetite is back in town, commodity rally hits a peak, bitcoin embraces risk-on mood



US stocks are rebounding as Wall Street embraces the exhaustion with the pricing surge across the commodity complex.  It has been almost two weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine and it appears that traders are becoming a little optimistic a compromise could happen after Ukrainian President Zelensky’s comment that he had “cooled down” about Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, which was one of the driving factors behind Russian’s invasion.  He also noted that he is open to compromise with the status of the two breakaway pro-Russian territories.

Optimism should be tempered as Ukraine Deputy Chief of Staff Zhovka said, “We will not trade our territories… not a single inch.” Which should imply that any quick compromises should not be expected.

Today’s rally was more of a dip-buying due to oversold conditions, but this massively complicated situation probably won’t see a quick fix as Ukraine will unlikely budge on recognizing Crimea and separatist-held regions as Russian.

The S&P 500 was able to defend lows from the initial financial shock that hit markets when Russia invaded Ukraine as many investors are now pricing in a less aggressive tightening cycle by the Fed and on optimism that we have seen the brunt of the surge in commodity prices.

Cryptos boosted as risk appetite increases

Bitcoin is benefiting from the risk-on trade that has roared back following some optimism that war in Ukraine won’t be a long one.  Talks are ongoing and the pressure is mounting on President Putin to not let this drag out too long.  Bitcoin initially got a boost from President Biden’s executive order that shows the US is figuring out how to regulate crypto to foster long-term growth for the space.  The end result of this executive will be greater protections for the consumer, financial stability, and a long path for a digital dollar.  Bitcoin will likely see strong resistance around the USD 45,000 level  unless the stock market rally does not slow down.

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