February ube muhle Bitcoin BTC $56,908 - akukho ukuphika. Ngisho nabatshalizimali abaqaphe kakhulu, abanobuso be-poker bebengathola kunzima ukuqukatha injabulo yabo njengoba i-BTC igasela idlula ingqophamlando engu-$50,000.
Bekunethemba elikhulu lokuthi izintengo azikaze zehle ngombiko we-CPI kaJanuwari - ukwehla ngo-2% akulutho ngokwemibandela ye-crypto. Ukuqhathaniswa nokugijima kwenkunzi ka-2021 kuye kwadwetshwa ngokwemvelo, okwenza kube nesethi entsha “I-Bitcoin nge-$ 100,000” izibikezelo.
Nokho, lokhu kusabisa kufanele kwehliswe. Uma uhlolisisa, umhlangano wamanje ubonakala uqhutshwa kakhulu ngokwengqondo. Isithombe esikhudlwana sibonisa ukuthi silindele isenzo senani esiyisicefe esisandulele, nokuthi u-2024 uzohluka ngokuphelele kwesasasa lango-2021.
Izimakethe zinobudlelwano bezinombolo eziyindilinga, futhi lokhu kubambe iqiniso kakhulu nge-crypto, lapho yonke into ihaba. NgoFebhuwari 9 asibonanga noyedwa, kodwa kwamenyezelwa izibalo ezinjalo ezimbili.
Okokuqala, i-Bitcoin ibona ama-ETF isango elimenyezelwa kakhulu lokungena kuma-cryptocurrencies kubatshalizimali bezikhungo zeTradFi - ifinyelele ku-$10 billion wezimpahla ngaphansi kokuphathwa esikhathini esingaphansi kwenyanga yokuhweba. Khona-ke, okwesibili, i-S&P 500 ifundeka ngokuthi “i-big tech kanye nezezimali” ifinyelele ingqopha-mlando ezindaweni zenkomba ze-5,000. Okulele ngezansi nangaphambi kokuba lezi ntengo zihambe kuxoxa enye indaba.
I-Bitcoin ibihweba phakathi kwebanga elicinene elingu-1-2% ezinsukwini zangaphambi kokwenyuka kwamanje. Ukuthathwa okukhulu kungase kube ukuthi imakethe yahlala iqaphile ngenxa yokungabi nasinqumo kwe-Securities and Exchange Commission ezindabeni ezifana nezinketho ze-ETF ze-BTC, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi i-Ethereum iyisibambiso noma impahla (futhi, ngokulandelayo, ukugunyazwa kwama-ETH ETF), kanye nokungabaza kwe-Fed. ukwehlisa izilinganiso zenzalo.
Nakuba i-macro futhi ingalungile, lokhu ukuthatha kwe-myopic. Ukubheka ukuntengantenga okubonakalayo kweBitcoin eminyakeni edlule kuphakamisa ngokuqinile ukuthi ububanzi obuncane kanye nokuqapha akukona nje ukuvezwa kwemvelo yamanje, kodwa uphawu lokuqhubekela phambili okuqinile ekuzinzeni okuphambene kakhulu nokuguquguquka okungajwayelekile komjikelezo wezinkunzi odlule, futhi lapha ukuhlala.
Ukuntengantenga kwe-Bitcoin, Okthoba 2023-Februwari 2024. Umthombo: Kraken
Isilinganiso sezibalo sokuthi intengo yempahla ihluke kangakanani enanini layo elimaphakathi phakathi nesikhathi esinikeziwe, ukuguquguquka okubonakalayo kusetshenziselwa ukuhlola ubungozi obuhlobene naleyo mpahla, ngamaleveli aphezulu abonisa ingozi enkulu. Ku-Bitcoin (kanye ne-Ethereum ephume endaweni yesibili), iye yehla.
Ngo-2021, ukuguquguquka okubonakalayo kwe-BTC kwahlala kungaphezu kuka-100% isonto nesonto futhi kwasondela iziqongo ezifinyelela ku-140%, Nokho, onyakeni odlule ngokuvamile kuhlale ngaphansi kwama-60%.
I-Ethereum, ehamba ngokuhambisana ne-BTC, ilandele amaphethini afanayo ezibangeni eziphakeme, nokuguquguquka okubonakalayo okufinyelele cishe ku-300% ngoMeyi 2021. Nokho, phakathi nezinyanga ezingu-12 ezedlule, nayo ibilokhu ingena ngaphansi kophawu lwama-60%.
Nyanga zonke, ukuchezuka kwazo zombili izinhlobo zemali bekuphansi ngisho nangokwengeziwe ngokuvamile kusukela phakathi kuka-30% no-50%, kodwa futhi kungene neminyaka engamashumi amabili.
Nakuba lokho okuhlanganisa ukuguquguquka okuphansi, okumaphakathi, noma okuphezulu okutholwayo kuyehluka kuye ngezimo zemakethe, impahla ethile ehlaziywayo, kanye nokubekezelela ubungozi komuntu ngamunye, ububanzi obungu-10% kuya ku-30% buvame ukuhlukanisa njengesilinganiso esimaphakathi. Isitoko sama-apula, ngokwesibonelo, siwela ngokulinganayo kulesi sigaba.
Kusenendlela okufanele sihambe ngayo ngaphambi kokuthi sibize izimpahla ze-Bitcoin ne-Ethereum ezishintshashintsha ngokusesilinganisweni futhi siziqhathanise nesitoko se-Apple ngaphandle kokubangela impendulo “yama-apula namawolintshi”. Kodwa-ke, iqiniso lokuthi sibona ukuntengantenga okubonakalayo kuklaba amabanga aphakathi kuwuphawu oluqinisekile lokuthi siphokophele kuleyo ndawo.
Yize izinombolo eziyindilinga ezibalulekile ngokwengqondo kanye nama-macro anzima azodala ukuguqulwa kwamanani isikhashana, noma yikuphi ukukhuphuka okubukhali kuzoncishiswa ngokushesha. Lokhu akusho ukuthi ama- $100,000 kanye nama- $10,000 amangqopha-mlando awakho emakhadini kulo nyaka, kodwa kunalokho, ukukhuphukela ezindaweni eziphakeme kuzoba umsebenzi ohamba kancane futhi ozinzile njengoba ukuntengantenga kunikeza ukuzinza.
Lokhu akukona ukudambisa umuzwa we-bullish wezinsuku ezimbalwa ezedlule. Kunalokho, kuwukuthatha okusangulukile ezenzakalweni zamanje okuthi, nakuba kungajabulisi uma kuqhathaniswa nezibikezelo ezivamile ze-crypto “zenyanga”, kubize umgubho ozayo. Njengemakethe ecishe ivuthiwe, sekuyisikhathi sokuthi sinciphise umdlandla wethu futhi sidlulisele lawo mandla esineke. Okuvamile okusha okubonakala ngesenzo samanani entengo engashintshile kulapha ku-Bitcoin ne-Ethereum.