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In 2023, global coal capacity saw a 2% increase, the largest growth since 2016. An energy expert warns that if coal plants are not retired quickly, achieving the Paris goals will be nearly impossible. EcoWatch, established in 2005 in Ohio, is a digital platform that focuses on providing high-quality, science-based content on environmental topics, their underlying causes, and potential solutions.
According to the annual Global Energy Monitor (GEM) survey called Boom and Bust Coal, there was a two percent increase in coal-fired operating capacity globally last year, marking the largest annual rise since 2016.
According to a press release from GEM, China accounted for the majority of the increase in expansion, while other regions also saw some growth.
Flora Champenois, who oversees the coal program at GEM, expressed concern about the current success of coal this year, as it goes against the trend of reducing its use. She emphasized the importance of countries with existing coal plants to retire them faster and for countries with plans for new coal plants to reconsider their construction. Champenois warned that failure to do so could hinder progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and the benefits of transitioning to clean energy.
In 2023, there was a net increase of 48.4 GW in coal capacity worldwide, with 69.5 GW being commissioned and 21.1 GW being retired. This brings the total global coal capacity to 2,130 GW according to data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker.
The rise in capacity was driven by new developments in countries such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Japan, Bangladesh, South Korea, Zimbabwe, and Greece, in addition to China.
In countries other than China, a combined total of 22.1 gigawatts of energy generation capacity were put into operation, while 17.4 gigawatts were taken out of service, resulting in a net increase
The past year saw the smallest decrease in coal capacity for retirement in more than ten years.
After the 2015 Paris Agreement was signed, 25 countries have decreased the amount of coal-powered energy they use, while 35 countries have increased it.
According to Champenois, the world is making progress in reducing the use of coal in the energy sector, but the transition is not happening fast enough and there are some risky paths being taken. This information was reported by Reuters.
The decrease in the number of coal plant retirements in Europe and the United States last year caused an increase in operating capacity. Almost half of the retirements in 2023 occurred in the U.S., with 9.7 GW being retired, which is a decrease from the country's peak of 21.7 GW in 2015.
Around 25% of retirements come from European Union countries and the United Kingdom, with the UK, Italy, and Poland being the top contributors.
However, the rapid increase in coal capacity may not last long, as the low rate of retirement in 2023 that led to the growth of coal is expected to increase in the United States and Europe, balancing out the temporary increase. Additionally, if China takes prompt action to meet its goal of closing down 30 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity by 2025, any significant increase in capacity would be limited. This information was provided by GEM.
According to reports from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and European Union (EU) countries, the amount of coal capacity for operating and pre-construction has decreased to 7.1 GW, marking the lowest level ever recorded. Out of all these nations, only four – the United States, Turkey, Australia, and Japan – are currently contemplating new coal projects.
Over the past ten years, the global coal industry has been changing significantly. The number of planned coal power plants has decreased dramatically since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015. Global pre-construction capacity has dropped by 68% since then, and new construction projects are at their lowest levels worldwide, except in China, since data started being collected.
From January onwards, 101 countries have decided to either reject their previous plans for new coal energy projects from the past decade or have made a formal commitment to the United Nations No New Coal Energy Compact.
Fortunately, many countries are demonstrating that it is feasible to phase out coal, and a majority of the world is moving towards a "no new coal" policy. According to GEM, out of the 82 countries that have coal power, 47 have either decreased their capacity or maintained it at the same level since the 2015 Paris Agreement. Countries like Austria, Belgium, Sweden, Portugal, Peru, and the United Arab Emirates have already closed or repurposed their last coal plants, while Slovakia, the UK, and possibly others are expected to do the same by 2024.
Nevertheless, the capacity for producing coal worldwide has increased by 11% since 2015.
China and India are the top two countries in the world in terms of coal consumption, making up 82 percent of the total capacity for coal plants that are being planned or built.
Together with China and India, there are nine other countries that make up 95 percent of coal capacity being considered. India alone makes up nearly half of this capacity, excluding China. These countries include Bangladesh, Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Kazakhstan, Russia, Pakistan, Laos, Türkiye, and Vietnam.
A press release stated that in order to achieve the goals set in the 2015 Paris Agreement and limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C, it is crucial to reduce the use of coal for generating power. Studies conducted by the International Energy Agency and other organizations suggest that OECD countries should stop using coal for power generation by 2030, while the rest of the world should do so by 2040 in order to be in line with the agreement's objectives.
Only 15 percent of the world's coal operating capacity, which is equivalent to 317 GW, has been scheduled for retirement in line with global climate goals. Another 10 percent, totaling 210 GW, has plans for closure that need to be accelerated to align with international climate targets.
Most coal plants around the world have made pledges to achieve net zero emissions or something similar, but 1,626 GW of coal operating capacity, which accounts for 75 percent, has not yet committed to closing down.
The plan to gradually stop using coal power by 2040 would mean shutting down an average of 126 GW of coal power plants each year for the next 17 years, which is roughly equivalent to closing two coal plants every week. Taking into account the coal plants that are currently being built or planned (578 GW), even more drastic reductions would be necessary.
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