Usondele kangakanani "umjikelezo we-Bitcoin" wamanje esiqongweni sayo semakethe yezinkunzi? Umlando uphakamisa ukuthi kungaba seduze kunalokho abaningi abakucabangayo.

Umhlaziyi oholayo we-Glassnode uJames Check ubonise ishadi ngoMsombuluko eliqhathanisa isenzo senani le-Bitcoin (BTC) eminyakeni emithathu edlule naleyo yezinye izinkathi ze-Bitcoin ngemva kokuthinta ukuphakama kwazo zonke izikhathi.

I-Bitcoin Cycle Top, Ngokusho kwe-Glassnode

Ngamasheke Isilinganiso, I-Bitcoin isesimweni esifanayo naleso eyayikuso ngo-December 2020. Ngaleso sikhathi, le mpahla yayisanda kuqhekeka ngaphezu kuka-$19,600 eyayibhaliswe ekuqaleni ngoDisemba 12, 2017 - ukulinda izinyanga ezingu-36 - futhi yayizoqhuma ibe ngu-$64,000. ezinyangeni ezimbalwa nje.

I-Bitcoin isesimweni esifanayo namuhla: cishe izinyanga ezingu-35 ngemva kokukhuphuka ngo-April 2021, impahla iphinde yafinyelela ku-$74,000 ngo-March 2024. i-pullback emfushane ngesonto eledlule njengoba abanikazi besikhathi eside bekhipha imali etafuleni, okukhumbuza u-20% kuya ku-30% amanani adonsela emuva emijikelezweni yangaphambili.

"Isizathu sokuthi ngisebenzise u-April yilapho imakethe yebhere iqala khona, ngakho-ke isikhathi sokululama kufanele silinganiswe kusukela kulelo phuzu," kuchaza u-Check.

Intengo ye-Bitcoin ngokobuchwepheshe yafinyelela inani eliphakeme kakhulu ngo-2021 ku-$69,000 ngoNovemba. Kodwa-ke, i-Glassnode ike yaphawula phambilini ukuthi “inani eliphakeme” le-Bitcoin lalinjani ngo-Ephreli 2021 ngokombono wokuziphatha we-on-chain, lapho abanikazi besikhathi eside beqala ukuthengisa izinhlamvu zemali zabo ngobuningi ukuya phezulu, njengasemijikelezweni yangaphambili.

Ngasekuqaleni kwale nyanga, u-Check uphawule ukuthi le selloff injalo vele iyaqhubeka kulo nyaka. Ngaleso sikhathi. Abanikazi besikhathi eside babesabalalisa izinhlamvu zemali ngenani le-257,000 BTC ngenyanga, uma kuqhathaniswa ne-319,000 BTC kanye ne-836,000 BTC ngesikhathi sokunwetshwa kwemakethe okukhulu ngo-2019 no-2021 ngokulandelana.

I-Bitcoin Iphokophelephi Ngokulandelayo?

Ngokusho komhlaziyi, ngisho ne-Bitcoin "izimfanzi" - abatshalizimali abangaphansi kwe-1 BTC - baqala ukuthengisa izinhlamvu zemali zabo naphezu kokuqongelela ngenkuthalo kanye ne-HODLing kuyo yonke imakethe yebhere.

Noma kunjalo, i-Check izwakalise ukuzethemba esimweni semakethe, iyibiza ngenye yezimakethe zezinkunzi “eziqinile” emlandweni. "Ukuqotshwa nokugwazwa kwezinkunzi kuwumphumela ongenzeka kakhulu amasonto kuya kwezinyanga," ubhale kuTwitter ngeSonto.

Umhlaziyi kwabikezelwa kulo nyaka ukuthi i-Bitcoin izofinyelela ku-$250,000 uhlamvu lwemali ngalunye ekupheleni komjikelezo wayo wamanje wezinkunzi.

Intengo ye-Bitcoin inyuke ngo-4% ngoMsombuluko yaya ngaphezu kuka-$70,000, iphindela emuva isuka ekubuyiseleni emuva ngesonto eledlule kuhambisana nokuphuma okukhulu okuvela kuGreyscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi ukuphuma kwe-ETF akubonakali kwehlile ngoMsombuluko, kuhlanganisa u-$350 wezigidi.