Isango lakho lokutshala imali okuphumelelayo kwe-crypto liholwa idatha nocwaningo
Isifinyezo esiphezulu
- Ukubuka konke kwanyanga zonke: NgoNdasa kwaba nobufakazi bokuthi i-Bitcoin ifinyelela inani eliphakeme kunawo wonke lama-$73k, eqhutshwa ukungena okubalulekile kwe-ETF nokudluliswa kwengcebo kusuka kubatshalizimali besikhathi eside kuya kwabasha. Ukuthuthukiswa kwe-Dencun okuyimpumelelo kwe-Ethereum, esilungele ukuba nomthelela kunqubomgomo yayo yezimali kanye nokwanda kwenethiwekhi, kuphawule enye intuthuko ebalulekile.
- Umfutho Wemakethe: Inkomba ye-Glassnode's Composite Momentum Indicator iphakamisa ukuthi ithrendi enhle inethuba eliphezulu lokuqhubeka, naphezu kokwehla kwe-metrics omsebenzi we-on-chain njenge-Miner Revenue Momentum. Ukushintsha kwezinkomba zokuziphatha zabatshalizimali bakamuva (ababambe isikhashana) kanye nezinzuzo kusabalulekile ekuhlaziyeni izitayela.
- I-Metric Spotlight: Ilandelela ivolumu eya ekuhwebeni, inkomba ye-Exchange Inflow Volume Momentum inikeza imininingwane mayelana nokuguquguquka kwemakethe okuqagelayo nemisebenzi yokuhweba, eveza imininingwane ekushintsheni kokuthengisa ingcindezi kanye nomnyakazo ongase ube khona wemakethe.
Siyakwamukela ohlotsheni lwakamuva lwe-Finance Bridge, lapho sihlukanisa khona amandla emakethe yezimpahla zedijithali ibe imininingwane engasebenza.
Ngenyanga edlule, i-Bitcoin ayigcinanga nje ngokufinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu kodwa iphinde yafinyelela lesi senzakalo esiyingqopha-mlando ngaphambi kokuncipha - isenzakalo esingakaze sibonwe emlandweni we-Bitcoin weminyaka engu-15. Uma ungathanda ukufunda okwengeziwe mayelana namandla emakethe aholele kulo mphumela, sincoma ukuthi ufunde umbiko wethu okhethekile ngamasu okuhweba azungeze uhhafu. Ngamafuphi, nokho, kusobala ukuthi indawo esanda kugunyazwa i-Bitcoin ETFs manje isiwumshayeli oyinhloko wesenzo samanani, nokungena okuqinile okuhlanganisa ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.6 ngo-March kuphela. (Funda kabanzi)
Kuyafaneleka futhi ukubalula ukuthi i-Bitcoin yadlula amanye amakilasi ezimpahla ngoMashi ngokusebenza okumangazayo okungu-17%, yadlula ama-9% egolide, ama-S&P 500's 3%, kanye nama-Nasdaq's 1%. Lokhu kukhuphuka kugcizelela ithonya elikhulayo kanye nentshisekelo yezimpahla zedijithali ngaphakathi kwe-ecosystem ebanzi yezezimali.
Izinga lokuqagela elizungeze ukugunyazwa okungaba khona kwe-spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs nakho kudonse ukunaka kwemakethe. Naphezu kwemibono eqinile ephikisanayo phakathi kochwepheshe nababambiqhaza, umzila usalokhu ungowokugunyazwa okungenzeka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi onyakeni. (Funda kabanzi)
Njengoba singena sijula kulolu hlobo, sizohlola ukuguquguquka kwemakethe okuphawule indawo yempahla yedijithali ngoMashi ngokombono we-on-chain. Sizophinde sibheke amamethrikhi abalulekile e-Glassnode ahlobene nomfutho wemakethe futhi sikhomba abahwebi bezitayela kanye nabatshalizimali okufanele babukele njengoba singena esigabeni esilandelayo somjikelezo wamanje wokutshala imali we-Bitcoin.
Uhlolojikelele lwemakethe lwanyanga zonke
I-Bitcoin iphule yafinyelela kumjikelezo wayo wesine ophezulu wesikhathi sonke (ATH), ithinta kafushane u-$73k futhi yacishe yashaya amazinga enjabulo ezinkomba eziyinhloko ze-on-chain. Lo mhlangano ubuphawuleka ngokudluliswa okubalulekile komcebo usuka kubanikazi besikhathi eside (LTH) uye kubatshalizimali abasha nabaqagelayo, okuhambisana nokukhuphuka okukhulu kwamamethrikhi enzuzo atholakele namazinga oxhaso esikhathi esizayo. I-Realized Cap of Bitcoin iphinde yafinyelela inani eliphakeme elisha lika-$504B, libonisa ukungena kwemali enkulu, ngokwengxenye eqhutshwa impumelelo emangalisayo yemikhiqizo emisha yase-US ETF edlale indima ebalulekile ekulondolozeni umfutho omuhle. (Funda kabanzi)
Njengoba i-Bitcoin inqamula i-ATH yomjikelezo wayo wangaphambilini, ababambiqhaza bemakethe bavaleleke ngaphezulu kuka-$2.6B enzuzweni etholakele ngaphambi kobukhulu bokuthathwa kwenzuzo - okuhlobene nokusheshisa ukusatshalaliswa ngabatshalizimali besikhathi eside - kwasidlula isidingo. Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi isigaba sokusabalalisa esiqaliswe ama-LTH kanye nokujovwa kwekhephithali okulandelayo kusikhumbuza amaphethini abonwe emijikelezweni edlule futhi kusikisela ukuthi inani elikhulu lama-LTH lisalinde amanani aphezulu ngaphambi kokulayishwa. (Funda kabanzi)
Ukuthuthukiswa kwe-Ethereum kanye Nemiphumela Yayo Yemakethe
Intuthuko enkulu endaweni yokugcina ye-Ethereum yathintwa ukwenziwa kusebenze ngempumelelo kokuthuthukiswa kwe-Dencun, okuklanyelwe ukuthuthukisa izixazululo zokukala ze-Layer-2 kanye nokwethula imodeli entsha ye-staking. Lokhu kuthuthukiswa okuhloswe ekunciphiseni izindleko zokuthengiselana kanye nokwandisa ukusetshenziswa kwenethiwekhi, okuyisinyathelo sokufinyelela imigomo ye-Ethereum yokunciphisa isikhathi eside. Ngokuphawulekayo, ukuthuthukiswa kunemiphumela engaba khona yenqubomgomo yezimali ye-Ethereum, okungenzeka yehlise izinga lokukhishwa kwe-ETH entsha futhi ngaleyo ndlela kuthinte amandla okunikezwa kwempahla. (Funda kabanzi)
I-Liquidity ekhuphukayo, i-Volatility Ekhuphukayo
I-liquidity emakethe ibone ukwenyuka okumangazayo, okuqhutshwa ama-LTH angena esigabeni sokusabalalisa kanye nokuvuswa kabusha kokuhlinzekwa okungasebenzi. Lokhu kunyuka kwe-liquidity kuwusizo kakhulu ekugcineni ukuchuma kwemakethe kanye nokwenza lula isidingo esisha. Ngasikhathi sinye, ukuntengantenga kwemakethe kuye kwakhula, kanti ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin kwezinsuku ezingama-90 kuphindeke kabili kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2023.
Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi ukulungiswa kwe-Bitcoin -15.4% ukuhlehla kusuka ku-$73k ATH nokuhlanganiswa okungaphezu kuka-$61K kufanekisele amaphethini omjikelezo wangaphambilini, njengokuhlola kabusha izinga lokungathathi hlangothi le-Net Realized Profit and Loss ngaphambi komunye umlenze phezulu. Ngakho-ke, ngokombono wedatha ye-on-chain, ukuthatha inzuzo nokusabalalisa kabusha kwalo mjikelezo kuhambisana eduze nokuziphatha okungokomlando okubonwe ngesikhathi sokugqashuka okufanayo kwe-ATH. Kubathengisi abanomdlandla nabathrendayo, imvelo yomjikelezo wokuziphatha kwabatshalizimali njengoba kubonwa ngamamethrikhi angukhiye aku-chain kusalokhu kuyithuluzi elibalulekile lokuhlola izindawo zokungena nokuphuma kanye nezinga eliyisisekelo lengozi. (Funda kabanzi)
Inkomba ye-Glassnode yokuphathelene ne-Composite Momentum Indicator, ewuhlaka lokuhlola oludalwe abahlaziyi bethu ukuze basize abahwebi abanomfutho nabathrendayo bahlole izimo zemakethe zamanje, okwamanje ikhomba ekuqhubekeleni phambili komfutho omuhle esiwubonile ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule. Njengesikhumbuzi, Inkomba ilandelela amamethrikhi angukhiye akuchungechunge kuzo zonke izigaba ezi-4 ezihlukene zomsebenzi wotshalizimali:
- Umsebenzi Waku-On-Chain: Ukusebenzisa umsebenzi wenethiwekhi nokutholwa ukuhlonza izikhathi zokukhula nokunwetshwa kwesisekelo somsebenzisi.
- Inzuzo Yemakethe: Ukuhlonza izikhathi lapho inzuzo engenziwanga abatshalizimali ithuthuka.
- Indlela Yokuchitha: Izikhathi zokubona lapho kukhona ukungena okwanele kwesidingo sokuthola inzuzo ethathwe abanikazi abakhona.
- Ukwabiwa Kwengcebo: Kucatshangelwa ibhalansi nokudluliswa kwengcebo phakathi kwabanikazi abadala nabasha.
Okwamanje, okuwukuphela kwesigaba esingafinyeleli imibandela ebonisa umfutho omuhle umsebenzi we-On-Chain. Amamethrikhi ayisisekelo alesi sigaba ahlanganisa i-Miner Revenue Momentum ne-Exchange Inflow Volume Momentum.
Uma sibheka ishadi elingezansi, singabona ukuthi Imali engenayo ye-Miner okwamanje isezingeni eliphansi. Lokhu kungenxa yokujwayelekile kwamazinga emali engenayo elandela isikhathi “sokuhlanya kwe-ordinals”, ebesinezimali eziphezulu ngokungavamile nezinkokhelo zombhalo. Njengoba i-Z-score ijwayelana nalezi ziqongo ngokuzifaka ezibalweni zayo, ingcindezi yenhlawulo ephansi yamanje ibonakala inciphile ngokuqhathaniswa.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, inani lamanje lentengiselwano, nakuba lisephezulu kakhulu, liphansi kakhulu kunelonyaka odlule, okunomthelela ekwehliseni ingcindezi yemali. Empeleni, amaleveli amanje emali engenayo yabasebenzi basezimayini nomsebenzi wokwenziwe, nakuba esaqinile, awahlukile kangako uma kuqhathaniswa namabhentshimakhi aphakeme asethwe ezinyangeni ezedlule, okuholela ekwehleni kwevelu ye-Z-score.
Ezinye izinkomba ezimbili ezingaphakathi kwesigaba somsebenzi we-on-chain i-Exchange Inflow Volume Momentum, eqhathanisa isilinganiso sanyanga zonke nesilinganiso sonyaka sokungena kwe-Bitcoin nokuhwebelana.
Le nkomba isakhomba kakhulu ekuthambekeni kwemakethe okuhle, nakuba singabona ukuthi imali engenayo yanyanga zonke ibonakala ifinyelele umvuthwandaba. Ukuhwebelana kwe-Momentum nokuthrendayo kufanele kuqaphe le metric ukuze kubone ukuthi ingabe lokhu kuwukwehla kwesikhashana noma ukuthrenda okuzinzile.
Ngaphandle kwalawa mamethrikhi amabili, kungase kudingeke futhi ukugxila ezinkomba zenzuzo nezintengo, ikakhulukazi lezo ezigxile kumathrendi esikhathi esifushane. Enye imethrikhi enjalo iyiNkomba Yesikhathi Esifushane Yomnikazi Wesikhathi Esifushane (i-STH) Yenani Lemakethe Levalue Ebonakalayo (MVRV) Momentum Indicator. Le nkomba inikeza imininingwane ngenzuzo engenzekanga noma ukulahlekelwa kwabasanda kungena emakethe. Ngokuqhathanisa isisekelo sezindleko ze-STH nenani lendawo yamanje, abahwebi bangakala ingcindezi abahlanganyeli abasha ababhekana nayo, bagqamise izikhathi ezingaba khona zokubeka phansi noma ukuthatha inzuzo.
Kusukela ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari, i-STH-MVRV ikhombise umfutho wemakethe omuhle, kodwa singabona futhi ukuthi inyuke kakhulu ekuqaleni kukaMashi futhi yafinyelela isilinganiso sonyaka owodwa kabili ngemuva kwalokho. Kulandela ukudayiswa kwakamuva kanye nesigaba sokuhlanganisa esiqhubekayo, inkomba isiqale ukukhuphuka futhi, okubonisa ukuvuka kabusha komfutho omuhle. Lokhu kuphakamisa ukuthi naphezu kokuntengantenga kwesikhashana, imakethe igcina amandla ayisisekelo, nama-STH okungenzeka alungiselele elinye igagasi lomsebenzi elithonywa izinzuzo zakamuva kanye nokuma kwemakethe kwamanje.
I-Metric Spotlight: I-Exchange Inflow Volume Momentum
Ekuhlaziyeni kwethu izitayela zomfutho wemakethe ngenhla, sisebenzise i-Exchange Inflow Volume Momentum. Le nkomba ilandelela izilinganiso zanyanga zonke kanye nonyaka zevolumu edluliselwe kukho konke ukuhwebelana, esebenza njengegeji elicwengisisiwe lomsebenzi wokuhweba endaweni. Ithuthukiswe i-Glassnode's entity-adjustment heuristics, le metric inikeza ukuqonda okuqondile kokuqagela okuqagelayo kwemakethe ngezikhathi zokukhula kwenethiwekhi.
Ngokuhlola ukuchezuka kanye ne-gradient phakathi kwalezi zilinganiso ezihambayo, abahlaziyi bangakwazi ukuthola izinkomba ezithuthukisiwe kanye nokwehlukana, okuhlinzeka ukuqonda okujulile kokulangazelela kwemakethe ukuqagela. Leli thuluzi liwusizo ngokukhethekile ekuhlonzeni amashifu emsebenzini wokuhweba owandulela umnyakazo wemakethe, okulenza libe yingxenye ewusizo kubadayisi abanomfutho nabahlaziyi abahlose ukulindela amathrendi emakethe.
I-Exchange Inflow Volume Momentum – Ukwahlukana Okusebenzisanayo
- Okuthrendayo Ongakubheka: Ukungena okuphezulu kungabonisa ingcindezi yokuthengisa engase ibe khona, kuyilapho ukwehla kwemali engenayo kungase kubonise ukuziphatha kokubamba, okuvame ukubonakala ezigabeni ze-bullish.
- Isibonelo Somlando: Ama-spikes angazelelwe ekungeneni kokushintshana ngokuvamile athengisa ama-bottoms amakhulu emakethe ye-Bitcoin. Singabona izibonelo zalokhu ngoMashi 2020, Meyi 2021, kanye noJuni 2022. Ukwengeza, ukuphambana phakathi kokungena kwanyanga zonke kanye nonyaka kokungena kwemali yokushintshisana kuvame ukwandulela ukukhuphuka okukhulu futhi kungasebenza njengendawo ethembisayo yokungena. Izibonelo zifaka u-Ephreli 2019 kanye noJuni 2023
- Ukuhluka kwemethrikhi: Thola ukubuka okuyimbudumbudu okwengeziwe kwedatha yevolumu enamamethrikhi afana Nokudlulisa Ivolumu isuka kumabhizinisi omkhomo iye ku-Exchanges, I-Net Dlulisa Ivolumu ukusuka/kuya Ukuhlukaniswa Ukuhwebelana Ngosayizi
Thola imininingwane yomuntu siqu
Sithemba ukuthi i-Finance Bridge iyaqhubeka nokuhlinzeka ngemininingwane ebalulekile futhi ikusiza ukuthi uzulazule ku-crypto landscape ngempumelelo.
Uma unombono wokuthi singayithuthukisa kanjani le ncwadi yezindaba ukuze isebenze kakhulu kuwe, siyakumema ukuthi uhlanganyele nathi. Ingabe unayo imibuzo mayelana nokuqukethwe kwalolu daba noma eminye imibuzo? Ungathanda ukuxhumana ngqo nethimba lethu labahlaziyi? Noma ingabe ungathanda ukuthola ukuthi ungawasebenzisa kanjani amandla aphelele e-Glassnode?
Ungangabazi ukufinyelela. Imicabango yakho nemininingwane izosisiza ukuthi siqhubeke sithuthukisa ikhwalithi yamasevisi ethu kanye nale ncwadi yezindaba, ngakho-ke sijabule kakhulu ukuzwa okuvela kuwe. Hlela ucingo nelungu elizinikele lethimba lethu labadayisi leSikhungo ukuze siqale ingxoxo.
Umshwana wokuzihlangula: Lo mbiko awunikezi noma yisiphi iseluleko sokutshala izimali. Yonke idatha ihlinzekelwe ngolwazi nezinjongo zemfundo kuphela. Asikho isinqumo sokutshala izimali esiyosekelwe olwazini olunikezwe lapha futhi nguwe wedwa onesibopho sokuthatha izinqumo zakho zokutshala izimali.
- I-SEO Powered Content & PR Distribution. Khuliswa Namuhla.
- I-PlatoData.Network Vertical Generative Ai. Zinike Amandla. Finyelela Lapha.
- I-PlatoAiStream. I-Web3 Intelligence. Ulwazi Lukhulisiwe. Finyelela Lapha.
- I-PlatoESG. Ikhabhoni, I-CleanTech, Amandla, Environment, Ilanga, Ukuphathwa Kwemfucuza. Finyelela Lapha.
- I-PlatoHealth. I-Biotech kanye ne-Clinical Trials Intelligence. Finyelela Lapha.
- Source: https://insights.glassnode.com/finance-bridge-approaching-the-halving/
