Usuku oselulindelwe isikhathi eside lwesigaba sesi-4 sokwehliswa kwe-Bitcoin selusondele emkhakheni we-cryptocurrency. I
ukubala kwehle kulo mcimbi kukhombisa ukuthi kungenzeka ngezikhathi zokugcina zangoLwesihlanu kusihlwa uma
utholakala emazweni aseMelika noma ngoMgqibelo ekuseni uma use-Asia noma
Europe.
Ngokwamamethrikhi emakethe, umcimbi ulindelwe lukhulu kuye futhi kufanele wehliswe kusenesikhathi ngaphambi kokwenzeka kwawo kwangempela. Ngokuphambene nokungqubuzana okungalindelekile kwamarokhethi ebusuku ekushiseni kweMpumalanga Ephakathi, umcimbi wokunciphisa uhhafu unomphumela ocacile—inani lemiklomelo ye-BTC.
ukuthi abavukuzi bathola ukuqedela i-block izoncishiswa ngesigamu kuya ku-3.125 BTC
kusuka ku-6.25 yamanje.
Lokhu kuzoholela nakanjani ekunikezeni okuncane okuvela kubavukuzi, kodwa
ingabe ishintsha i-liquidity yemakethe iyonke? Sizozama ukuphendula lowo mbuzo ezigabeni ezilandelayo, futhi ngenkathi sikuwo, thina
izophinde igqamise izinselele ezithile ezihlobene ne-geopolitical yamanje
isimo sezwe kanye nezimo zemakethe ze-jittery esisanda kuzibona.
Njalo lapho kumbiwa amabhlogo angu-210,000, amabhlogo Bitcoin Iphrothokholi yenethiwekhi ukusikeka phakathi inani lemiklomelo emisha. Njengoba kuqokonyiswe ithimba locwaningo lwesikhungo eCoinbase, lokhu kusho ukuthi abasanda kuhlanganyela
ukunikezwa kwe-minted kuzokwehla kusuka ku-900 Bitcoins ngosuku kuya ku-450 Bitcoins ngosuku. Ngo
amanani emakethe yamanje ($65,000 nge-BTC ngayinye), lokhu kulingana cishe namaRandi angu-30,000,000
ukuthengwa okusha ngosuku noma u-$900,000,000 ngenyanga.
Lezi zibalo ziphansi kakhulu uma ziqhathaniswa nesilinganiso samanani okuhweba nsuku zonke kuwo wonke ama-crypto exchange, ikakhulukazi kusukela kwethulwa ukuhweba kwe-BTC ETF, okubangele ukwanda kwentshisekelo empahleni.
class.
Umthombo: IBhulokhi
Inani leBitcoin elidayiswayo nalo belilokhu likhuphuka
ngesikhathi sokugijima kwenkunzi kwakamuva okuye kwashesha kusukela ekuqaleni kwe-Q4 2023. Ngokusho
ithimba at Coinbase Institutional Research, asebenzayo BTC supply, kuchazwa ngokuthi Bitcoin wathuthela ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule, lenyuka 1.3 million. Lesi sibalo siqhathaniswa ne-150,000, okwakukhona
zambiwa ngaleso sikhathi.
Esitatimendeni esabiwe no Izibalo Zezimali, Ucwaningo lukaCoinbase
Umhlaziyi, uDavid Han, ukhulume ukuthi ukwehla kokukhishwa kwezimayini ze-BTC
ingakha amandla amasha e-supply-side akhayo esikhathini eside.
U-Han uzwakalise ukungabaza kwakhe ngokuthi lokho kungaholela yini
ukushoda kwempahla okuseduze: “Sithola ukuthi abaxhasi abakhulu bayanda
Ukunikezwa kwe-BTC ngesikhathi sezimakethe zezinkunzi kuvela kuma-wallet esikhathi eside aqala ukuya
vula esikhundleni se-BTC esanda kumbiwa.”
I-Crypto kanye ne-Fiat Liquidity Cycles - Isiginali kanye Nomsindo
Inkolelo ephethwe kabanzi emphakathini we-cryptocurrency yilokho
nokuhafula phakathi imicimbi ivamise ukulandelwa irali ebalulekile enanini
izimpahla zabo zedijithali. Nakuba kukhona ukuhlobana okungokomlando okufanele kuqinisekiswe
lo mbono, isayensi kade yasungulwa - ukuhlobana akusho
ukubangela.
Iphutha eliphusile lapho izehlakalo ezimbili zenzeka ngesikhathi esifanayo
isikhathi sibe nobudlelwano bembangela-umphumela siphakathi nendawo yokungamanga
ubudlelwane - izenzakalo ezimbili zingahlotshaniswa, kodwa lokho kuxhumana kungase kungabi
imbangela.
Ngabathathu kuphela nokuhafula phakathi izehlakalo ezingemuva kwethu kanye nesesine
ukuphuza, umuntu angabona ukuhlobana, kodwa hhayi ngempela imbangela-umphumela
ubudlelwano. Ukwehliswa kwemicimbi ngohhafu akuhambisani neze nebhange elikhulu
imijikelezo encibilikayo, kodwa njengoba ishadi elingezansi libonisa, kunokuthile okucatshangwayo
emaqenjini okulawula ubungozi kanye nabahwebi ngokufanayo.
Ngaphansi kwamahora angu-7 ukuya #Bitcoin ukuhlukanisa ⏳
Uyibonaphi intengo ye $ BTC uzolandela?
Thola ukubala wehle lapha: https://t.co/hBaJI9Juo9 pic.twitter.com/BfrAfkBh3I
- CoinGecko (@coingecko) April 19, 2024
Ngaphakathi kwesigamu sokuqala ngo-2012, i Iphethwe wethula owesithathu
isahluko sohlelo lwayo lwe-post-financial crisis quantitative easing (QE3), maduze nje
kulandele inkinga yokuqala yezikweletu zase-US kanye nokulahlekelwa kwendawo egciniwe
isilinganiso se-AAA somhlinzeki wemali.
Owesibili, ngo-2016, walandelwa ngu Ibhange laseNgilandiUkwenyuka kwe-post-Brexit kokuthengwa kwebhondi kuhambisana nohlelo lokuthengwa kwempahla lwe-ECB. Dlulisela phambili ku-2020, futhi sonke sikhumbula inqubomgomo yebhange elikhulu kanye nenqubomgomo yezimali ye-bazookas idubula kwesokunxele nakwesokudla nge-fiat liquidity eyanele kangangokuthi yagcina ibangele ukukhuphuka okubukhali kwengcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni jikelele kusukela ngawo-1970s.
I-Geopolitical Blocks
Kwakusekuseni eMpumalanga Ephakathi, njengoba a
Ukuhlasela kwe-Iran ngetelegraph kuhlehliswe kwa-Israyeli. Nakho konke okunye
izimakethe zezimali zivaliwe, bekuyi-crypto ukukhombisa isimo samanje se
ingqondo (noma ukubala).
I-Wall Street endala ethi, “khuphuka izitebhisi, phansi
ikheshi,” kwafika emqondweni BTC kanye ne-ETH yehle ngokuhambisana ezimeni ezincipha ngokushesha ze-liquidity. Ngalobo busuku, i-Coinbase yabhalisa imali elinganiselwa ku-$2 billion, ithimba lesikhungo locwaningo lwesikhungo
kugqanyiswe ocingweni lwemakethe lwangesonto lwakamuva.
Ngokuphambene nesenzo samanani esihamba kancane esenzeka ngemva kokuhlaselwa kuka-Israyeli ngo-Okthoba 7 yi-Hamas, ukuhlasela kwe-Iranian, naphezu kokuba kuthunyelwe ngocingo ngaphambi kwempelasonto, kubangele isenzo samanani entengo kuyo yonke imakethe ye-crypto.
Ngesinye isikhathi, i-Pax Gold, ithokheni ye-crypto okufanele isekelwe ngokugcwele ngegolide, yakhuphuka cishe u-$ 1000 ngesikhathi lapho imakethe yegolide ebonakalayo, esekela inani lohlamvu lwemali, yayingavuliwe. Ubukhulu
kokuhlasela kwamangaza abahlanganyeli bemakethe, kuyilapho abanye bezenzakalela
Imiyalo "yeka ukuhweba" kufanele ukuthi ikhishwe kukho konke ukuhweba kwe-algorithmic
amasu.
Imicimbi egxile ekucindezelekeni kwezwe ngokuqinisekile ibangele ukuthi abanye abadlali abanamandla bacabange kabusha, hhayi emakethe ye-crypto kuphela. Amanani aphezulu kasihlalo we-Fed u-Powell wesikhathi eside aphakamisa imibuzo mayelana nokwenza lula okulindelekile kwenqubomgomo yezimali.
Inkulumo kaSihlalo u-Powell mayelana nesimo somnotho @StanfordGSB: https://t.co/y6oLUN0LYw
Buka bukhoma: https://t.co/a0ApMRHum2
- I-Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) April 3, 2024
Ukubhida, Noma Ukungabhidi
Njengoba imijikelezo yohhafu iza iphinde ihambe, umthelela walokhu
izenzakalo zingancipha ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Njengoba ama-bitcoins amaningi asevele embiwa, isimo samanje se-liquidity yemakethe singaphezulu kakhulu mayelana nokunikezwa okukhona kwe-BTC emakethe kunezinhlamvu zemali ezisanda kumbiwa.
I-crunch ye-supply ngobusuku isenzakalo esingase sibe khona, futhi uma
umlando wakamuva kakhulu yimuphi umhlahlandlela, ukungezwani kwezepolitiki ingadala okwengeziwe
ukuguquguquka noma amagagasi e-liquidity ku-cryptocurrency kanye nezezimali zendabuko
izimakethe.
Iqondiswa ubungozi kanye nokugeleza kobungozi, ama-cryptocurrencies ane
bebedelela lo mkhuba ngezikhathi ezithile, kodwa emnyombweni wabo bahlala besengozini enkulu
impahla enesitolo sedijithali sengxenye yenani ngemuva kwayo. Isikhathi kuphela esiyosho ukuthi leyo ndaba isibe yisici esimisiwe noma cha, kodwa kunjalo
kude, kuhle kakhulu.
Njengoba umcimbi wokwehliswa kwesigamu uza futhi udlula kithi, yiwona
amabhange amakhulu azoba nebhola enkundleni yawo - alungele ukwenza noma yini
kuthatha ukubhekana nezinselele zokwehla kwamandla emali noma ukuhlinzeka ngemali eyengeziwe yemali etholakalayo
uhlelo lwezimali.
With Ama-ETF e-Bitcoin ukwephula umhlabathi omusha, i-liquidity
isimo senkosi ye-crypto sesithuthuke kakhulu. Njengoba u-David Han echaza: “Ama-ETF aphelele e-US angenayo kuze kube manje acishe asuse i-BTC eyayikhona
imayini ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule.”
Usuku oselulindelwe isikhathi eside lwesigaba sesi-4 sokwehliswa kwe-Bitcoin selusondele emkhakheni we-cryptocurrency. I
ukubala kwehle kulo mcimbi kukhombisa ukuthi kungenzeka ngezikhathi zokugcina zangoLwesihlanu kusihlwa uma
utholakala emazweni aseMelika noma ngoMgqibelo ekuseni uma use-Asia noma
Europe.
Ngokwamamethrikhi emakethe, umcimbi ulindelwe lukhulu kuye futhi kufanele wehliswe kusenesikhathi ngaphambi kokwenzeka kwawo kwangempela. Ngokuphambene nokungqubuzana okungalindelekile kwamarokhethi ebusuku ekushiseni kweMpumalanga Ephakathi, umcimbi wokunciphisa uhhafu unomphumela ocacile—inani lemiklomelo ye-BTC.
ukuthi abavukuzi bathola ukuqedela i-block izoncishiswa ngesigamu kuya ku-3.125 BTC
kusuka ku-6.25 yamanje.
Lokhu kuzoholela nakanjani ekunikezeni okuncane okuvela kubavukuzi, kodwa
ingabe ishintsha i-liquidity yemakethe iyonke? Sizozama ukuphendula lowo mbuzo ezigabeni ezilandelayo, futhi ngenkathi sikuwo, thina
izophinde igqamise izinselele ezithile ezihlobene ne-geopolitical yamanje
isimo sezwe kanye nezimo zemakethe ze-jittery esisanda kuzibona.
Njalo lapho kumbiwa amabhlogo angu-210,000, amabhlogo Bitcoin Iphrothokholi yenethiwekhi ukusikeka phakathi inani lemiklomelo emisha. Njengoba kuqokonyiswe ithimba locwaningo lwesikhungo eCoinbase, lokhu kusho ukuthi abasanda kuhlanganyela
ukunikezwa kwe-minted kuzokwehla kusuka ku-900 Bitcoins ngosuku kuya ku-450 Bitcoins ngosuku. Ngo
amanani emakethe yamanje ($65,000 nge-BTC ngayinye), lokhu kulingana cishe namaRandi angu-30,000,000
ukuthengwa okusha ngosuku noma u-$900,000,000 ngenyanga.
Lezi zibalo ziphansi kakhulu uma ziqhathaniswa nesilinganiso samanani okuhweba nsuku zonke kuwo wonke ama-crypto exchange, ikakhulukazi kusukela kwethulwa ukuhweba kwe-BTC ETF, okubangele ukwanda kwentshisekelo empahleni.
class.
Umthombo: IBhulokhi
Inani leBitcoin elidayiswayo nalo belilokhu likhuphuka
ngesikhathi sokugijima kwenkunzi kwakamuva okuye kwashesha kusukela ekuqaleni kwe-Q4 2023. Ngokusho
ithimba at Coinbase Institutional Research, asebenzayo BTC supply, kuchazwa ngokuthi Bitcoin wathuthela ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule, lenyuka 1.3 million. Lesi sibalo siqhathaniswa ne-150,000, okwakukhona
zambiwa ngaleso sikhathi.
Esitatimendeni esabiwe no Izibalo Zezimali, Ucwaningo lukaCoinbase
Umhlaziyi, uDavid Han, ukhulume ukuthi ukwehla kokukhishwa kwezimayini ze-BTC
ingakha amandla amasha e-supply-side akhayo esikhathini eside.
U-Han uzwakalise ukungabaza kwakhe ngokuthi lokho kungaholela yini
ukushoda kwempahla okuseduze: “Sithola ukuthi abaxhasi abakhulu bayanda
Ukunikezwa kwe-BTC ngesikhathi sezimakethe zezinkunzi kuvela kuma-wallet esikhathi eside aqala ukuya
vula esikhundleni se-BTC esanda kumbiwa.”
I-Crypto kanye ne-Fiat Liquidity Cycles - Isiginali kanye Nomsindo
Inkolelo ephethwe kabanzi emphakathini we-cryptocurrency yilokho
nokuhafula phakathi imicimbi ivamise ukulandelwa irali ebalulekile enanini
izimpahla zabo zedijithali. Nakuba kukhona ukuhlobana okungokomlando okufanele kuqinisekiswe
lo mbono, isayensi kade yasungulwa - ukuhlobana akusho
ukubangela.
Iphutha eliphusile lapho izehlakalo ezimbili zenzeka ngesikhathi esifanayo
isikhathi sibe nobudlelwano bembangela-umphumela siphakathi nendawo yokungamanga
ubudlelwane - izenzakalo ezimbili zingahlotshaniswa, kodwa lokho kuxhumana kungase kungabi
imbangela.
Ngabathathu kuphela nokuhafula phakathi izehlakalo ezingemuva kwethu kanye nesesine
ukuphuza, umuntu angabona ukuhlobana, kodwa hhayi ngempela imbangela-umphumela
ubudlelwano. Ukwehliswa kwemicimbi ngohhafu akuhambisani neze nebhange elikhulu
imijikelezo encibilikayo, kodwa njengoba ishadi elingezansi libonisa, kunokuthile okucatshangwayo
emaqenjini okulawula ubungozi kanye nabahwebi ngokufanayo.
Ngaphansi kwamahora angu-7 ukuya #Bitcoin ukuhlukanisa ⏳
Uyibonaphi intengo ye $ BTC uzolandela?
Thola ukubala wehle lapha: https://t.co/hBaJI9Juo9 pic.twitter.com/BfrAfkBh3I
- CoinGecko (@coingecko) April 19, 2024
Ngaphakathi kwesigamu sokuqala ngo-2012, i Iphethwe wethula owesithathu
isahluko sohlelo lwayo lwe-post-financial crisis quantitative easing (QE3), maduze nje
kulandele inkinga yokuqala yezikweletu zase-US kanye nokulahlekelwa kwendawo egciniwe
isilinganiso se-AAA somhlinzeki wemali.
Owesibili, ngo-2016, walandelwa ngu Ibhange laseNgilandiUkwenyuka kwe-post-Brexit kokuthengwa kwebhondi kuhambisana nohlelo lokuthengwa kwempahla lwe-ECB. Dlulisela phambili ku-2020, futhi sonke sikhumbula inqubomgomo yebhange elikhulu kanye nenqubomgomo yezimali ye-bazookas idubula kwesokunxele nakwesokudla nge-fiat liquidity eyanele kangangokuthi yagcina ibangele ukukhuphuka okubukhali kwengcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni jikelele kusukela ngawo-1970s.
I-Geopolitical Blocks
Kwakusekuseni eMpumalanga Ephakathi, njengoba a
Ukuhlasela kwe-Iran ngetelegraph kuhlehliswe kwa-Israyeli. Nakho konke okunye
izimakethe zezimali zivaliwe, bekuyi-crypto ukukhombisa isimo samanje se
ingqondo (noma ukubala).
I-Wall Street endala ethi, “khuphuka izitebhisi, phansi
ikheshi,” kwafika emqondweni BTC kanye ne-ETH yehle ngokuhambisana ezimeni ezincipha ngokushesha ze-liquidity. Ngalobo busuku, i-Coinbase yabhalisa imali elinganiselwa ku-$2 billion, ithimba lesikhungo locwaningo lwesikhungo
kugqanyiswe ocingweni lwemakethe lwangesonto lwakamuva.
Ngokuphambene nesenzo samanani esihamba kancane esenzeka ngemva kokuhlaselwa kuka-Israyeli ngo-Okthoba 7 yi-Hamas, ukuhlasela kwe-Iranian, naphezu kokuba kuthunyelwe ngocingo ngaphambi kwempelasonto, kubangele isenzo samanani entengo kuyo yonke imakethe ye-crypto.
Ngesinye isikhathi, i-Pax Gold, ithokheni ye-crypto okufanele isekelwe ngokugcwele ngegolide, yakhuphuka cishe u-$ 1000 ngesikhathi lapho imakethe yegolide ebonakalayo, esekela inani lohlamvu lwemali, yayingavuliwe. Ubukhulu
kokuhlasela kwamangaza abahlanganyeli bemakethe, kuyilapho abanye bezenzakalela
Imiyalo "yeka ukuhweba" kufanele ukuthi ikhishwe kukho konke ukuhweba kwe-algorithmic
amasu.
Imicimbi egxile ekucindezelekeni kwezwe ngokuqinisekile ibangele ukuthi abanye abadlali abanamandla bacabange kabusha, hhayi emakethe ye-crypto kuphela. Amanani aphezulu kasihlalo we-Fed u-Powell wesikhathi eside aphakamisa imibuzo mayelana nokwenza lula okulindelekile kwenqubomgomo yezimali.
Inkulumo kaSihlalo u-Powell mayelana nesimo somnotho @StanfordGSB: https://t.co/y6oLUN0LYw
Buka bukhoma: https://t.co/a0ApMRHum2
- I-Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) April 3, 2024
Ukubhida, Noma Ukungabhidi
Njengoba imijikelezo yohhafu iza iphinde ihambe, umthelela walokhu
izenzakalo zingancipha ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Njengoba ama-bitcoins amaningi asevele embiwa, isimo samanje se-liquidity yemakethe singaphezulu kakhulu mayelana nokunikezwa okukhona kwe-BTC emakethe kunezinhlamvu zemali ezisanda kumbiwa.
I-crunch ye-supply ngobusuku isenzakalo esingase sibe khona, futhi uma
umlando wakamuva kakhulu yimuphi umhlahlandlela, ukungezwani kwezepolitiki ingadala okwengeziwe
ukuguquguquka noma amagagasi e-liquidity ku-cryptocurrency kanye nezezimali zendabuko
izimakethe.
Iqondiswa ubungozi kanye nokugeleza kobungozi, ama-cryptocurrencies ane
bebedelela lo mkhuba ngezikhathi ezithile, kodwa emnyombweni wabo bahlala besengozini enkulu
impahla enesitolo sedijithali sengxenye yenani ngemuva kwayo. Isikhathi kuphela esiyosho ukuthi leyo ndaba isibe yisici esimisiwe noma cha, kodwa kunjalo
kude, kuhle kakhulu.
Njengoba umcimbi wokwehliswa kwesigamu uza futhi udlula kithi, yiwona
amabhange amakhulu azoba nebhola enkundleni yawo - alungele ukwenza noma yini
kuthatha ukubhekana nezinselele zokwehla kwamandla emali noma ukuhlinzeka ngemali eyengeziwe yemali etholakalayo
uhlelo lwezimali.
With Ama-ETF e-Bitcoin ukwephula umhlabathi omusha, i-liquidity
isimo senkosi ye-crypto sesithuthuke kakhulu. Njengoba u-David Han echaza: “Ama-ETF aphelele e-US angenayo kuze kube manje acishe asuse i-BTC eyayikhona
imayini ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule.”
- I-SEO Powered Content & PR Distribution. Khuliswa Namuhla.
- I-PlatoData.Network Vertical Generative Ai. Zinike Amandla. Finyelela Lapha.
- I-PlatoAiStream. I-Web3 Intelligence. Ulwazi Lukhulisiwe. Finyelela Lapha.
- I-PlatoESG. Ikhabhoni, I-CleanTech, Amandla, Environment, Ilanga, Ukuphathwa Kwemfucuza. Finyelela Lapha.
- I-PlatoHealth. I-Biotech kanye ne-Clinical Trials Intelligence. Finyelela Lapha.
- Source: https://www.financemagnates.com//cryptocurrency/bitcoin-halving-and-geopolitics-the-liquidity-conundrum/
