I-Generative Data Intelligence

Ukufaneleka kwe-Bitcoin Halving Kuphonselwe inselelo ngama-ETF

Usuku:

Njalo eminyakeni emine, ukwehla kwe-Bitcoin kwenzeka, okusho ukuthi inani lezinhlamvu zemali ezintsha ezikhishwe ngemiklomelo yezimayini linqunywa phakathi. Lapho i-Bitcoin yethulwa okokuqala, imivuzo yezimayini yayingama-50 BTC. Njengamanje, leso sibalo singu-6.25 BTC, futhi ngemva kokwehliswa kwesigamu esilandelayo, sizoncishiswa ku-3.125 BTC.

Ukwehlukaniswa kwesigamu kwenzeka njalo emabhuloki angu-210,000 kunokuba kube ngezinsuku ezishiwo ngaphambili, kodwa lokhu kuhambisana cishe nomjikelezo weminyaka emine, okusho ukuthi ukuncipha okulandelayo kokukhishwayo kufanele kufinyelele kithi kulo Mbasa. Ngokuphawulekayo, ukubheka isenzo sentengo ye-BTC kusukela ekuqaleni kwembula iphethini ephindaphindayo yezinzuzo eziqondile, ukulungiswa okujulile, nokuthola kabusha okudonswe ngaphandle, futhi lokhu kulandelana kubonakala kuhambisana eduze nokwehliswa, okuholela phakathi kwabahwebi be-bitcoin enkolelweni egxilile yokunciphisa uhhafu. ukunyakaza.

Nokho, njengoba Bitcoin ikhulile futhi yakhula emalini yemakethe, futhi ngokwethulwa manje Thola i-Bitcoin ETFs e-United States, abanye bayabuza ukuthi umcimbi wokwehliswa kwesigamu usabalulekile yini, kuyilapho ungathola futhi amazwi ambalwa agomela ngokuthi ukwehla kwesigamu akukaze kubaluleke kakhulu njengoba bekucatshangwa, bephikisana ngokuthi ezinye izici ezingacacile zibangele ukunyuka kwentengo. kuze kube manje.

Icala Elimelene Nokuncipha Kokubaluleka

Njengoba kuchaziwe, uhhafu wehliswe imivuzo yabavukuzi ngesigamu, kodwa kukhona impikiswano yokuthi lokhu kube nomthelela owengeziwe lapho iningi lokunikezwa kokugcina lalingakakhishwa. Kodwa-ke, kusukela manje, cishe ama-93.5%. Bitcoin Isamba sokunikezwa sesivele sisakazwa. Lokho kusho ukuthi ngaphansi kwezigidi ezingu-1.4 ze-BTC, kusukela ekuhlinzekeni okuphelele kwe-21 million BTC, kusazokwakhiwa, ngakho-ke, ngenxa yalokho, ukukhishwa okusha kudala ukuchaphaza okuncane echibini elikhulu.

Phezu kwalokhu, umkhawulo wemakethe ye-Bitcoin sikhulu kakhulu manje kunasezinsukwini zokuqala zokuba khona kwempahla, okwamanje ehlezi ngaphezudlwana nje kwe- $ 1 trillion, esondela ekuphakameni kukaNovemba 2021 okungaphezu kuka-$1.2 trillion. Lokhu kusabeka i-BTC kude negolide (okubizwa ngokuthi i-digital replacement), ene-market cap elinganiselwa ku-$ 13.6 trillion, kodwa noma kunjalo, i-BTC iyimpahla enesisindo kakhulu kunakuqala, ehambisana nokuncipha kokushintshashintsha.

Ishadi elivela ku-Buy Bitcoin Worldwide

Bese kuba neqiniso lokuthi uma i-BTC ikhona ngempela isikhathi eside, ikhula ngenani nokutholwa njengoba ukunikezwa kusondela umkhawulo wayo, futhi manje isiyimpahla yase-Wall Street ethengiswa ngayo. Ama-ETP kumaphothifoliyo wabatshalizimali abangenayo isithakazelo esikhethekile ku-crypto, khona-ke ama-halves kufanele, ngesikhathi esithile, ayeke ukuthonya ukuzimisela kwentengo efanelekile.

Ekugcineni, ngemva kweminyaka eyishumi nanhlanu, i-Bitcoin iye yathuthela endaweni evamile: ama-ETF abeka kabusha i-BTC endaweni yokutshala izimali; uma ukutholwa kwesikhungo kuqhubekela phambili, kuzoqinisa ukuthi amashifu kanye nezikhungo zamabhange njengamanje zicindezela SEC ukubavumela ukuthi bagcine i-crypto. Nakuba ukuncipha kungase kube nomthelela ebuntwaneni be-BTC, ukwamukelwa okunengqondo esikalini kungase kuqale inguquko kude nalawo mandla okuqala.

Kungani Ukunciphisa Ingxenye Kungase Kube Nendaba

Nakuba kungase kungabi umbono onamatheliswa kabanzi, kufanelekile ukwazi ukuthi icala lokwehliswa kwehhafu lingamane linciphe ngokubaluleka kodwa kungakaze kube yisici esibalulekile esithinta imijikelezo yentengo ye-bitcoin.

Empeleni, ingxabano elula: ukukhuphuka nokuwa okukhulu kwentengo ye-Bitcoin kungase kubonakale kuhambisana nemicimbi yohhafu, kodwa futhi kuhambisana eduze nokwehla nokwenyuka kwempahla yemali ye-M2 yomhlaba wonke, futhi kusukela lapho, kuyaqondakala ukuthi empeleni umthelela wokugcina, izimali , lokho kuyisici esiyinhloko sokushayela.

Izizathu Zokunqamula Isigamu Kusabalulekile

Ngakolunye uhlangothi locingo, izimpikiswano eziningi zokubaluleka kokwehliswa kwesigamu zehlela ezindabeni eziqondile zokuhlinzeka nesidingo, ezingasithwanga ukufika kwama-ETF akhona. Eqinisweni, lo mbono ucabangela i- ETFs: ngesonto eledlule, ukungena kwe-ETF bekudla, ngokwesilinganiso, cishe ku-9,000 BTC ngosuku, kuyilapho ukukhishwa kohlamvu lwemali olusha kuzungeze i-900 BTC kuphela ngosuku, inani okuthi, ngemva kokwehliswa kwesigamu lizokwehliswa libe cishe ku-450 BTC ngosuku.

Lokho kusho ukuthi ama-ETF-njengoba izinto zimi, ukwehliswa kwesigamu-athatha cishe izikhathi eziyishumi bitcoin ngaphezu kwalokho esanda kukhishwa, ngakho-ke ebusweni bayo, ukusika ukukhishwa ngesigamu kubonakala kubalulekile. Kodwa futhi kukhona enye into, into engenakulinganiswa emsebenzini, okuwukuhweba ngesayensi yengqondo, kanye nomthelela wokulandisa okudumile nezinkolelo ezabiwe.

Bheka noma yikuphi ukuqagela kwe-Bitcoin okubonisiwe, okwesikhathi eside okuzungeza ku-inthanethi, kusukela ekuqalisweni ngo-2009 kuya esikhathini samanje bese kudlulela eshumini leminyaka elizayo, futhi uhhafu ubonakala ngokugqamayo. Eqinisweni, kuvame ukuba amakholomu amaphakathi lapho kuphuma khona iziqongo zokushaywa kanye crypto-ebusika imikhumbi, futhi ngaphezu kwalokho, ukushintshwa kwentengo okuphindaphindayo kwe-BTC kubonakala kuhleleke ngendlela emangalisayo.

Ngakho-ke, umqondo wokuthi uhhafu ubalulekile esenzweni samanani usugxilile, futhi kulo mbono, noma ngabe ukuncishiswa bekungabalulekanga ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, bekuyobe kusabalulekile ngoba kuthonya okulindelekile, futhi okulindelwe kunomthelela ekuziphatheni. .

Noma, ukukubeka ngenye indlela, inqobo nje uma abantu abanele bekholelwa ukuthi i-halfing ibalulekile, khona-ke ukulinganisa kungase kuqhubeke kubalulekile.

Njalo eminyakeni emine, ukwehla kwe-Bitcoin kwenzeka, okusho ukuthi inani lezinhlamvu zemali ezintsha ezikhishwe ngemiklomelo yezimayini linqunywa phakathi. Lapho i-Bitcoin yethulwa okokuqala, imivuzo yezimayini yayingama-50 BTC. Njengamanje, leso sibalo singu-6.25 BTC, futhi ngemva kokwehliswa kwesigamu esilandelayo, sizoncishiswa ku-3.125 BTC.

Ukwehlukaniswa kwesigamu kwenzeka njalo emabhuloki angu-210,000 kunokuba kube ngezinsuku ezishiwo ngaphambili, kodwa lokhu kuhambisana cishe nomjikelezo weminyaka emine, okusho ukuthi ukuncipha okulandelayo kokukhishwayo kufanele kufinyelele kithi kulo Mbasa. Ngokuphawulekayo, ukubheka isenzo sentengo ye-BTC kusukela ekuqaleni kwembula iphethini ephindaphindayo yezinzuzo eziqondile, ukulungiswa okujulile, nokuthola kabusha okudonswe ngaphandle, futhi lokhu kulandelana kubonakala kuhambisana eduze nokwehliswa, okuholela phakathi kwabahwebi be-bitcoin enkolelweni egxilile yokunciphisa uhhafu. ukunyakaza.

Nokho, njengoba Bitcoin ikhulile futhi yakhula emalini yemakethe, futhi ngokwethulwa manje Thola i-Bitcoin ETFs e-United States, abanye bayabuza ukuthi umcimbi wokwehliswa kwesigamu usabalulekile yini, kuyilapho ungathola futhi amazwi ambalwa agomela ngokuthi ukwehla kwesigamu akukaze kubaluleke kakhulu njengoba bekucatshangwa, bephikisana ngokuthi ezinye izici ezingacacile zibangele ukunyuka kwentengo. kuze kube manje.

Icala Elimelene Nokuncipha Kokubaluleka

Njengoba kuchaziwe, uhhafu wehliswe imivuzo yabavukuzi ngesigamu, kodwa kukhona impikiswano yokuthi lokhu kube nomthelela owengeziwe lapho iningi lokunikezwa kokugcina lalingakakhishwa. Kodwa-ke, kusukela manje, cishe ama-93.5%. Bitcoin Isamba sokunikezwa sesivele sisakazwa. Lokho kusho ukuthi ngaphansi kwezigidi ezingu-1.4 ze-BTC, kusukela ekuhlinzekeni okuphelele kwe-21 million BTC, kusazokwakhiwa, ngakho-ke, ngenxa yalokho, ukukhishwa okusha kudala ukuchaphaza okuncane echibini elikhulu.

Phezu kwalokhu, umkhawulo wemakethe ye-Bitcoin sikhulu kakhulu manje kunasezinsukwini zokuqala zokuba khona kwempahla, okwamanje ehlezi ngaphezudlwana nje kwe- $ 1 trillion, esondela ekuphakameni kukaNovemba 2021 okungaphezu kuka-$1.2 trillion. Lokhu kusabeka i-BTC kude negolide (okubizwa ngokuthi i-digital replacement), ene-market cap elinganiselwa ku-$ 13.6 trillion, kodwa noma kunjalo, i-BTC iyimpahla enesisindo kakhulu kunakuqala, ehambisana nokuncipha kokushintshashintsha.

Ishadi elivela ku-Buy Bitcoin Worldwide

Bese kuba neqiniso lokuthi uma i-BTC ikhona ngempela isikhathi eside, ikhula ngenani nokutholwa njengoba ukunikezwa kusondela umkhawulo wayo, futhi manje isiyimpahla yase-Wall Street ethengiswa ngayo. Ama-ETP kumaphothifoliyo wabatshalizimali abangenayo isithakazelo esikhethekile ku-crypto, khona-ke ama-halves kufanele, ngesikhathi esithile, ayeke ukuthonya ukuzimisela kwentengo efanelekile.

Ekugcineni, ngemva kweminyaka eyishumi nanhlanu, i-Bitcoin iye yathuthela endaweni evamile: ama-ETF abeka kabusha i-BTC endaweni yokutshala izimali; uma ukutholwa kwesikhungo kuqhubekela phambili, kuzoqinisa ukuthi amashifu kanye nezikhungo zamabhange njengamanje zicindezela SEC ukubavumela ukuthi bagcine i-crypto. Nakuba ukuncipha kungase kube nomthelela ebuntwaneni be-BTC, ukwamukelwa okunengqondo esikalini kungase kuqale inguquko kude nalawo mandla okuqala.

Kungani Ukunciphisa Ingxenye Kungase Kube Nendaba

Nakuba kungase kungabi umbono onamatheliswa kabanzi, kufanelekile ukwazi ukuthi icala lokwehliswa kwehhafu lingamane linciphe ngokubaluleka kodwa kungakaze kube yisici esibalulekile esithinta imijikelezo yentengo ye-bitcoin.

Empeleni, ingxabano elula: ukukhuphuka nokuwa okukhulu kwentengo ye-Bitcoin kungase kubonakale kuhambisana nemicimbi yohhafu, kodwa futhi kuhambisana eduze nokwehla nokwenyuka kwempahla yemali ye-M2 yomhlaba wonke, futhi kusukela lapho, kuyaqondakala ukuthi empeleni umthelela wokugcina, izimali , lokho kuyisici esiyinhloko sokushayela.

Izizathu Zokunqamula Isigamu Kusabalulekile

Ngakolunye uhlangothi locingo, izimpikiswano eziningi zokubaluleka kokwehliswa kwesigamu zehlela ezindabeni eziqondile zokuhlinzeka nesidingo, ezingasithwanga ukufika kwama-ETF akhona. Eqinisweni, lo mbono ucabangela i- ETFs: ngesonto eledlule, ukungena kwe-ETF bekudla, ngokwesilinganiso, cishe ku-9,000 BTC ngosuku, kuyilapho ukukhishwa kohlamvu lwemali olusha kuzungeze i-900 BTC kuphela ngosuku, inani okuthi, ngemva kokwehliswa kwesigamu lizokwehliswa libe cishe ku-450 BTC ngosuku.

Lokho kusho ukuthi ama-ETF-njengoba izinto zimi, ukwehliswa kwesigamu-athatha cishe izikhathi eziyishumi bitcoin ngaphezu kwalokho esanda kukhishwa, ngakho-ke ebusweni bayo, ukusika ukukhishwa ngesigamu kubonakala kubalulekile. Kodwa futhi kukhona enye into, into engenakulinganiswa emsebenzini, okuwukuhweba ngesayensi yengqondo, kanye nomthelela wokulandisa okudumile nezinkolelo ezabiwe.

Bheka noma yikuphi ukuqagela kwe-Bitcoin okubonisiwe, okwesikhathi eside okuzungeza ku-inthanethi, kusukela ekuqalisweni ngo-2009 kuya esikhathini samanje bese kudlulela eshumini leminyaka elizayo, futhi uhhafu ubonakala ngokugqamayo. Eqinisweni, kuvame ukuba amakholomu amaphakathi lapho kuphuma khona iziqongo zokushaywa kanye crypto-ebusika imikhumbi, futhi ngaphezu kwalokho, ukushintshwa kwentengo okuphindaphindayo kwe-BTC kubonakala kuhleleke ngendlela emangalisayo.

Ngakho-ke, umqondo wokuthi uhhafu ubalulekile esenzweni samanani usugxilile, futhi kulo mbono, noma ngabe ukuncishiswa bekungabalulekanga ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, bekuyobe kusabalulekile ngoba kuthonya okulindelekile, futhi okulindelwe kunomthelela ekuziphatheni. .

Noma, ukukubeka ngenye indlela, inqobo nje uma abantu abanele bekholelwa ukuthi i-halfing ibalulekile, khona-ke ukulinganisa kungase kuqhubeke kubalulekile.

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