Isifinyezo esiphezulu

• Izintengo ze-Bitcoin zihlehlile -15.4% zisuka ku-$73k ATH entsha, zafinyelela ngaphansi njenge-$61k. Lesi senzo senani sihambisana eduze kakhulu nomjikelezo wangaphambili ka-2018-21.
• Izinkomba ezimbalwa ze-on-chain zimake ukunyuka kwezehlakalo ezithatha inzuzo, ngenzuzo engaphezu kuka-$2.6B enzuzweni etholakele njengoba imakethe ifinyelela ukumelana.
• Imakethe ye-Bitcoin iyonke inokufana okuningana kokugqashuka kwe-ATH kwangaphambilini, okuhlobene ngokuqondile nokucindezela kokusabalalisa kweqembu Labaphathi Besikhathi Eside.

Imakethe ye-Bitcoin ithathe ukuphefumula kusukela ekukhuphukeni okunamandla emasontweni amabili edlule, futhi isilungisile futhi yahlanganisa ngaphezu kwe-$ 61k. Izintengo ze-BTC zihlehlile -15.4% zisuka ku-$73.1k ATH entsha emiswe ngomhla ka-13-Mashi, zihweba zaya endaweni ephansi engu-$61.8k ngomhla ka-20-March, ngaphambi kokubuyela ku-$70k.

Uma sikhomba ukusebenza kwentengo (okumnyama) kusukela ngo-April 2021 ATH (lapho siphikisana khona kumiswa imakethe yebhere), singabona ukufana okumangalisayo nomjikelezo wangaphambili (oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka). Kokubili ubude besikhathi nebanga ukusuka ekuphakameni kuka-April 2021, imakethe isendaweni efanayo noDisemba 2020 ngokuhlobene nomjikelezo ka-2018-21.

Kuwethu umbiko wevidiyo wangesonto eledlule, sihlole ukuthi imakethe ye-Bitcoin ifinyelele kanjani emazingeni ambalwa abalulekile ngokwezibalo mayelana nenzuzo Engafinyelelwanga ebanjwe ngaphakathi kokunikezwayo. Amamethrikhi afana ne-MVRV kanye ne-AVIV Ratio afinyelele ukuchezuka okujwayelekile +1 ezindleleni zawo zesikhathi eside.

Izimo ezedlule beziyizinto ezithakaselwayo ngokomlando, lapho imakethe ithola izinga elithile lokumelana, futhi abanye abatshalizimali baqala ukuthatha inzuzo kanye nama-chips etafuleni.

Njengoba amanani entengo edayisiwe esuka ku-ATH futhi aya phansi kwakamuva ku-$61.2k, isamba esingu-2.0M BTC sishintshile sisuka esimweni 'sokwenza inzuzo' saya ekubeni 'ngokulahlekelwa'. Lokhu kunikeza inkomba yevolumu yezinhlamvu zemali eziye zasebenza ngesisekelo sezindleko eziphakeme ezintsha.

Njengoba imakethe ibuyela emuva ku-$66.5k, cishe izinhlamvu zemali ezingu-1.0M zibuyele esimweni 'sokwenza inzuzo'. Kulokhu okuphawuliwe okubili, singanquma ukuthi:

• Cishe i-1.0M BTC inesisekelo sezindleko phakathi kuka-$61.2k no-$66.5k.
• Cishe i-1.0M BTC inesisekelo sezindleko phakathi kuka-$66.5k kanye ne-ATH ku-$73.2k.

Lena enye 'yamaqoqo anikezelayo' amakhulu okuhlangatshezwane nawo ngesikhathi sokudonsa emuva kusukela ekwehleni kuka-2022, okuphakamisa ukusheshiswa kwamavolumu e-on-chain coin ezinyangeni zakamuva.

Ekhipha Ama-Chips Etafuleni

Iningi lalezi 2.0M BTC manje ezinesisekelo sezindleko ezingaphezu kuka-$61.2k zisanda kushintsha izandla, umnikazi wangaphambili uzisebenzise ukuze akhiyele inzuzo. Ishadi elingezansi linikeza iqoqo lezinto ezihlukile zemethrikhi ye-SOPR echaza lokhu kuziphatha kwenzuzo okutholakele.

I-SOPR ichaza isilinganiso esitholiwe senzuzo/ukulahlekelwa okuphindiwe okuvalelwe phakathi yiqembu elicatshangelwayo, futhi iyingane 'echithiwe' ye-MVRV ('engasetshenzisiwe', ekala inzuzo/ukulahlekelwa okungakafezeki). Zonke izinhlobo ezine zifinyelele ukuphakama okuhlobene, ngokwahlukahlukana kwethu Okulungiswa Kwebhizinisi okusondelayo okubonwa ekuphakameni kwemakethe yezinkunzi yango-2021.

Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi imakethe isheshisa umthamo kanye nobukhulu benzuzo ethatha ezimakethe ezikhona.

Njengoba imakethe ifinyelela ku-$73.2k ATH, ngaphezu kuka-$2.6B enzuzweni etholakele yavalwa ngokusetshenziswa kwemali ku-on-chain. Cishe u-40% walokhu kuthathwa kwenzuzo kungase kubalulwe eqenjini Lesikhathi Eside, Lababambeli, elihlanganisa abatshalizimali abaphuma ku-GBTC Trust.

U-$1.56B osele enzuzweni etholakele uvalelwe Abaphathi Besikhathi Esifushane, njengoba abahwebi basebenzisa ithuba lokungena kwemali kanye nomfutho wemakethe. Inzuzo etholakele yiwo womabili amaqoqo ifinyelele kubukhulu obufanayo ngesikhathi semakethe yezinkunzi ka-2021.

Singabona futhi ukubusa Kwabaphethe Isikhathi Eside kukhula uma kuqhathaniswa nayo yonke imicimbi ethatha inzuzo. Lokhu kuhambisana nombiko wethu wangaphambili (WoC-11) lapho siphawule khona ukwenyuka kokusetshenziswa kwe-LTH njengoba imakethe ingena kuma-ATH amasha.

Le phethini yokuziphatha ijwayelekile kuyo yonke imijikelezo ye-Bitcoin yangaphambili esiyibhale embikweni wangaphambilini; Ukulandela Imali Ehlakaniphile Kusukela kulokhu, abahlaziyi bangaqala ukucabangela ama-LTH njengeqembu elibaluleke nakakhulu lapho behlola ubukhulu bengcindezi yokuhlinzekwa kohlangothi oluthengiswayo eya phambili.

Okokugcina, singabheka ishadi elithile elikhangayo elihlela amaqoqo okuhlinzeka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kanye nobudala bohlamvu lwemali. Sigqamise ngamakhefu adlule aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka enanini elisha le-ATH, okwenza kube nenguquko ehlukile ebheke 'ekuphakeleni okushisayo okubomvu'.

Le mibala efudumele ikhombisa ukuthi ingxenye enkulu yezinto ezindala isiqalile ukusebenza, ukushintsha izandla, futhi ibuyekezwe ngentengo yamanje. Siyabona ukuthi lokhu kuvame ukuveza i-'Euphoria Phase' yezimakethe zangaphambili ze-Bitcoin, futhi kuze kube manje amaphethini afanayo ayadlala.

Kusukela kulokhu, singaphetha ngokuthi amanani aphezulu avame ukusebenza kancane, abuyisele ukunikezwa kwe-illiquid endala ekujikelezeni koketshezi. Lokhu kukhombisa umcimbi wokudlulisa ingcebo, lapho abanikazi besikhathi eside besabalalisa ukunikezwa ukuze bathole inzuzo, futhi banelise amagagasi amasha angenayo esidingo.

Isifinyezo futhi Iziphetho

Imakethe ye-Bitcoin iqoqele ku-ATH entsha engaphezu kuka-$73k, okubangele ukukhuphuka kokuthatha inzuzo kwemicimbi yiqembu Labaphathi Besikhathi Eside. Imakethe njengamanje ibona ngaphezu kuka-$2.6B/ngosuku ngenzuzo etholakele, okuphakamisa ukuthi abatshalizimali abaningi sebeqalile ukukhipha ama-chips etafuleni. Lokhu akukhona ukuziphatha kwemakethe okungavamile nokho, futhi kuqondana eduze kakhulu namaphethini emakethe abonwa phakathi kwawo wonke umjikelezo wangaphambili wokuqhekeka kwe-ATH.

Umshwana wokuzihlangula: Lo mbiko awunikezi noma yisiphi iseluleko sokutshala izimali. Yonke idatha ihlinzekelwe ngolwazi nezinjongo zemfundo kuphela. Asikho isinqumo sokutshala izimali esiyosekelwe olwazini olunikezwe lapha futhi nguwe wedwa onesibopho sokuthatha izinqumo zakho zokutshala izimali.

Izilinganiso zokushintshana ezethulwe zithathwe kusizindalwazi esibanzi se-Glassnode samalebula amakheli, aqoqwa ngawo womabili ulwazi lokushintshisana olushicilelwe ngokusemthethweni kanye nama-algorithms okuhlanganisa okuphathelene. Nakuba silwela ukuqinisekisa ukunemba okukhulu ekumeleleni ibhalansi yokushintshisana, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi lezi zibalo zingase zingahlali zihlanganisa yonke imali egciniwe yokuhwebelana, ikakhulukazi lapho ukuhwebelana kugwema ukudalula amakheli abo asemthethweni. Sinxusa abasebenzisi ukuthi baqaphele futhi baqaphele lapho besebenzisa lawa mamethrikhi. I-Glassnode ngeke ithweswe icala nganoma yikuphi ukungezwani noma okungase kube nokungalungile. Sicela ufunde Isaziso sethu Sokungafihli lapho usebenzisa idatha yokushintshisana.

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• Source: https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-13-2024/