• I-Fed encane ene-dovish ukusikwa yi-SNB ibangele amandla edola laseMelika kusukela ngoLwesine olwedlule, 21 Mashi.
• Ibhange eliphakathi laseChina, i-PBoC liphendule ngokulungiswa kwansuku zonke okuphansi kunalokho obekulindelwe ku-yuan yasogwini (CNY) ngoLwesihlanu olwedlule, 22 Mashi okuholele ekutheni i-yuan yasogwini (CNH) yehle ngo-0.8% uma iqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika laya ezinyangeni ezimbili. phansi.
• Obunye ubuthakathaka be-CNH bungase buqalise impi yemali engase iqalise ukuvela kwempendulo engemihle engase ibe yimpahla eyingozi.

Lokhu ukuhlaziya kokulandelela kombiko wethu wangaphambili, "I-Hang Seng Index Technical: Isigaba se-countertrend rebound kungenzeka ukuthi sesiphelile" yamhla zi-5 kuNdasa 2024. Chofoza lapha okokuphindaphinda.

Emasontweni amabili edlule, i-China, kanye ne-Hong Kong benchmark stock indices (CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng TECH Index & Hang Seng China Enterprises Index) bahwebe emaceleni ngemuva kokurekhoda izinzuzo eziphakathi kuka-+16% kuya ku-24% ezivela ku- ngokulandelana ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari ukwehla kuye kwakamuva maphakathi no-March.

Lezi zigameko zakamuva zokwenziwa kahle zenze iChina neHong Kong zibe izimakethe zamasheya ezinkulu eziqhuba kahle kakhulu ngoFebhuwari futhi zisekelwa ukungabi bikho kwesimo esiqinile sedola laseMelika esinciphisa ubungozi bokuphuma kwemali njengoba iChina isalokhu icwile engozini yokwehla kwamandla emali. spiral kanye nempi yokuhweba esezingeni eliphezulu eqhubekayo ne-US kusukela ngo-2018.

Ngakho-ke, imibuthano yakamuva kanye nokusebenza okungaphezu kokusebenza kwezinkomba zesitoko esibalulekile sase-China ne-Hong Kong kuye kwasekelwa ngokungaqondile i-yuan yaseShayina ezinzile lapho i-CNH (offshore yuan) ihwebe ngenani eliqinile lika-0.7% uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika phakathi komhlaka-5 February kuya 12 Mashi.

Ukwehliswa kwezinga lokumangala kwe-SNB kungase kubangele impi yemali

NgoLwesine olwedlule, zingama-21 kuNdasa, i-Swiss National Bank (SNB) yenze isimanga kubahlanganyeli bemakethe ngokugunyaza ukuncishiswa kwezinga lamaphuzu angu-25 (bps) kuya ku-1.5% ngokwezinga lenqubomgomo yalo ebalulekile, ukusika kwalo okokuqala eminyakeni eyisishiyagalolunye, nangaphambi kwalokho. i-US Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE), kanye ne-European Central Bank (ECB).

Enye yezinto eziphushayo zokugunyaza ukwehla kwangaphambi kwesikhathi kwesilinganiso yi-SNB ngaphandle kokwehla okucacile komkhuba wokwehla kwamandla emali (izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali eliwumgogodla wonyaka lihlale lingaphansi kuka-2% kusukela ngoMeyi 2023) amandla aqhubekayo e-franc angase acekele phansi ukuncintisana kwezimpahla zaseSwitzerland. kanye nezinsizakalo ezibuye ziphazamise ukukhula komnotho eSwitzerland.

I-EUR/CHF cross pair isheshise ukwehla kwayo eminyakeni emithathu edlule lapho yehle ngo-17% ukuze iphrinte ukuvala okungu-0.9270 ngomhla ka-5 Januwari 2024, okuphansi kakhulu ngaso sonke isikhathi ezingeni lokuvala kusukela ku-EUR/CHF emangazayo. unpeg ngomhla ka-15 Januwari 2015 (i-intraday ephansi ye-0.8600 ngokuvala kwansuku zonke kwe-0.9753).

I-CHF yawa ngemuva kokumangala kwesinqumo se-SNB; yehle ngo -1% uma iqhathaniswa ne-EUR yafinyelela ezingeni layo elibuthaka kakhulu kusukela ngoJulayi 2023. Futhi, yehle -1.2% uma iqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika laze lehla ngezinyanga ezine.

Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi i-yuan ye-offshore (CNH) yehle ngo--0.8% uma iqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika ukuze iphrinte inani eliphansi lezinyanga ezimbili ngoLwesihlanu olwedlule, 22 March ngemuva kokuba ibhange eliphakathi laseChina, i-PBoC ibeke ukulungiswa kwansuku zonke okubuthakathaka kunalokho obekulindelwe ku-onshore yuan. CNY).

Le sethi yakamuva yenqubomgomo ye-FX ehanjiswa yi-PBoC kungenzeka ukuthi ibonise ukuzimisela ukudela uhlobo oluthile lwemali ephumayo phezu kokugcina ukuncintisana kokuthengiswayo kwamanye amazwe ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukukhula komnotho, nokugcwalisa igebe ngenxa yokungabikho kwesidingo esinamandla sasekhaya.

Uma idola laseMelika liqhubeka nokuqina ngenxa yokuma kancane kwe-Fed (ngokungasheshi ukwehlisa amanani), kungase kuholele ekwehleni kwenani lemali ethuthukisiwe phakathi kwabadayisi abakhulu abafana neSouth Korea neSingapore okungenzeka kufake ingcindezi ku-PBoC. ukwenza buthaka i-CNH futhi ukuze kubuyiselwe ukulahleka okungenzeka kokuncintisana kwezohwebo.

Sekukonke, inkambiso yamandla edola laseMelika ephikelelayo ingase iqalise izinqubomgomo zezimali ezithandwa yimpi zohlobo lwemali "yesinxibi-umakhelwane wakho" phakathi kwabathumela ngaphandle.

I-CNH ebuthaka ayihambi kahle ezimpahleni eziyingozi

Umdwebo 1: Ukuxhumana okuqondile kwe-CNH/USD ne-CSI 300, HSCEI & HSI kusukela ngomhla ka-25 Mar 2024 (Umthombo: TradingView, chofoza ukuze ukhulise ishadi)

Eminyakeni emibili edlule, izikhathi zobuthakathaka obuphawulekayo ku-CNH (i-yuan yasogwini) uma kuqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika zibangele ukuvela kwempendulo engemihle emuva ezimakethe zamasheya zase-China nase-Hong Kong kodwa ngokwezinga elincane ezimakethe zamasheya ezisafufusa ngaphandle kwe-China (bona Fig. 1).

Ngakho-ke, ukuthamba kwakamuva okubonwe ku-CNH kungase kuqalise omunye umjikelezo wokunyakaza okunamandla kwamaviki amaningi ku-CSI 300, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, kanye ne-Hang Seng Index.

Umfutho we-Bearish uphinde wavela ku-Hang Seng Index

Fig 2: Hong Kong 33 Index inkomba enkulu kusukela ngomhlaka-25 Mar 2024 (Umthombo: TradingView, chofoza ukuze ukhulise ishadi)

Umdwebo 3: I-Hong Kong 33 Inkomba yesikhathi esifushane kusukela ngomhla ka-25 Mar 2024 (Umthombo: UkuhwebaBuka, chofoza ukuze ukhulise ishadi)

Izenzo zentengo ze-Hong Kong 33 Index (ummeleli wekusasa le-Hang Seng Index) zenze ukwehla okuphansi ngaphansi kokusekelwa kwayo kwangaphambili kwesiteshi esikhuphukayo kusukela ngomhla zingama-22 kuJanuwari 2024 kanye nesilinganiso sayo sokuhamba sezinsuku ezingama-20 ngoLwesihlanu olwedlule, zingama-22. Mashi.

Ukwengeza, umfutho wansuku zonke we-RSI nawo wephule ngaphansi kokusekelwa kwawo okubalulekile okukhuphukayo okuhambisanayo futhi nje wephule ngaphansi kwezinga lama-50 okubonisa ukuvuselelwa okungaba khona komfutho wesikhathi esimaphakathi.

Ku-lens yokuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe, le sethi yakamuva yezinto ze-bearish iphakamisa ukuthi i-rally yakamuva ka-+16% kusukela ngomhla ka-22 January 2024 ephansi ye-14,777 ithathe uhlobo lokucushwa kwe-"bearish flag", ukunyakaza kwe-antitrend rebound ngaphakathi kwayo okukhulu nokude. -term izigaba ze-bearish yezwe (bheka i-Fig 2).

Ukuwohloka kwe-bearish yangoLwesihlanu olwedlule okubonwe "efulegini le-bearish" kanye ne-RSI yayo yansuku zonke iphakamise ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi ukulandelana kwe-bearish impulsive down move kuqale kabusha.

Uma ukhiye we-16,960 wokumelana okubalulekile kwesikhathi esifushane ungadluli phezulu, i-Index ingase ibone ukwehla okuqhubekayo okungenzeka kudalule ukusekelwa okulandelayo okuphakathi ku-16,135 (futhi isilinganiso sezinsuku ezingu-50 ezihambayo), kanye ne-15,730 (bheka i-Fig 3).

Kodwa-ke, imvume engaphezulu kwe-16,960 iphikisana nethoni ye-bearish ukuze ibone ukuhlolwa kabusha endaweni ephakeme ye-17,230 yokushwibeka kwe-13 Mashi 2024, futhi ngaphezu kwayo ibona ukumelana okubalulekile kwesikhathi esimaphakathi kungena ku-17,570/600.

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