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Isonto Elizayo - idatha ye-inflation yase-US isihloko esikhulu, i-BoC icabanga ngokunye ukunyuka, ukumisa okwesikhashana kwe-RBNZ - MarketPulse

Ishicilelwe kabusha nguPlato
Ishicilelwe kabusha nguPlato

Usuku:

Ukubukwa: 102

US

Leli sonto limayelana nokwehla kwamandla emali. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kwaminyaka yonke kuzokwehla njengoba amanani amandla ehla futhi ngenxa yemiphumela eyisisekelo, kodwa abadayisi abaningi bazonaka kakhulu ukufundwa okuyisisekelo. I-CPI nyanga zonke kulindeleke ukuthi inyuke ngo-0.3%, ephakeme kunejubane likaMeyi lika-0.1%. Ukufundwa kwesihloko sonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle kusuka ku-4.0% kuya ku-3.0%. Ukufundwa okuyisisekelo kwanyanga zonke kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke ngo-0.3%, kanti ukufundwa konyaka nonyaka kuncipha kube ngu-5.0%. Okulindelekile okwezingcindezi zentengo zikhuphukela phambili.  

Isonto elizayo ligcwele izikhulumi ze-Fed kanye nokukhululwa kwe-Beige Book ngoLwesithathu. NgoMsombuluko, sizwa ngo-Barr ngokugadwa kwebhange, u-Daly ukhuluma nge-inflation namabhange, kanti u-Mester uxoxa ngombono wezomnotho nenqubomgomo. NgoLwesithathu kuqukethe ukubonakala kukaBarkin, okhuluma nge-inflation, uKashkari uxoxa ngenqubomgomo yezimali, uBostic uhambela umcimbi wokukhokha we-Atlanta Fed, kanti u-Mester ukhuluma ku-FedNow. Ukugeleza kwakamuva kwedatha yezomnotho kungase kugunyaze ukuthi i-hawkish Fed ikhulume.  

I-Eurozone

Akuyona into ejabulisa kakhulu emavikini, elawulwa idatha yezomnotho yesigaba sesibili nesesithathu. Okuvelele cishe ama-akhawunti e-ECB, nakuba ngingaqiniseki ukuthi kuzoba khona noma yini emangalisa ngokweqile kuwo. Ukuhlola kwe-ZEW, ukufundwa kokugcina kwamandla emali, nezibikezelo ezintsha zezomnotho ze-EU nakho kuyaphawuleka kodwa kungase kungayisusi inaliti uma kuziwa ekulindelweni kwezomnotho noma kwezinga lenzalo.

UK 

Iviki elizayo linikeza ukukhethwa kwedatha yezomnotho, okuphawuleka kakhulu umbiko wemakethe yezabasebenzi ngoLwesibili. Idatha engcono ibonakala ivela yonke indawo kodwa i-UK okwamanje kanye nabenzi bezinqubomgomo ze-BoE bazobe bethemba ukuthi idatha yemisebenzi iletha izindaba ezinhle ezidlulelwe yisikhathi, ukukhula kwamaholo okunesizotha kanye nezimpawu zokupholisa kwemakethe yezabasebenzi. Akungabazeki ukuthi uMbusi we-BoE u-Andrew Bailey uzophawula ngalokhu ukubonakala kwakhe okuningi isonto lonke. Sizothola nesibuyekezo ngokusimama komnotho ngedatha ye-GDP ngoLwesibili nangoLwesine, okokugcina kube ukukhululwa okusemthethweni.

Russia

Idatha yokwehla kwamandla emali ngoLwesithathu kulindeleke ukuthi ibonise ukushisa kwengcindezi okungase kuchaze ukuthi kungani i-CBR ibilokhu ikhomba ukuthi umnyakazo olandelayo wezinga lenzalo ungase ube phezulu kunokuba ube phansi. Izinga inani le-CPI elikhuphuka ngalo cishe lizonquma ukuphuthuma ibhange elikhulu elizosabela ngakho. I-ruble ihlala ingaphansi kwengcindezi futhi ukunyuka kwamanani kungase kusize ukubhekana nezinkinga zombili.

Iningizimu Afrika

Ayikho idatha enkulu yezomnotho noma imicimbi ngeviki elizayo. Ukukhiqizwa kokukhiqiza kanye nenhlolovo yokuthenjwa kwebhizinisi ukuphela kokukhishwa okuphawulekayo.

igalikuni

I-lira isalokhu ingaphansi kwengcindezi enkulu ngemuva kokuthi uhulumeni elahle inqubomgomo yakhe engasimeme nengajwayelekile yokunciphisa imali kanye nokungenelela ezimakethe, okudale ukukhuphuka okukhulu kwamandla emali. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kwehle kancane ngenyanga edlule kodwa lokho cishe ngeke kuqhubeke njengoba imali yehle kakhulu. Idatha ngesonto elizayo ihlanganisa ukungasebenzi, ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni, ne-akhawunti yamanje. 

Switzerland

Akukho okukhishiwe okukhulu noma imicimbi ngesonto elizayo, nge-PPI ngoLwesihlanu njengokuwukuphela kwento ekhalendeni. 

China

Idatha ebalulekile eminingana nemicimbi okufanele ibukwe kuleli sonto. Ngasohlangothini lwezombangazwe, uMgcinimafa wase-US u-Yellen useqale ukuvakasha kwakhe okusemthethweni e-China futhi uzohlangana nezikhulu eziphezulu zase-China ngempelasonto, 8 July kuya ku-9 July. Abahlanganyeli bezimakethe bazobe bebheke izimpawu zokuthi kuzoba khona yini inqubekela phambili phakathi kwe-US ne-China ekutholeni izindawo ezivumelanayo kwezomnotho nokuvula iziteshi zokuxhumana ukuze kuqhutshekwe nenkhulumomphendvulwano phakathi kobudlelwano obushubile phakathi kwabo “ngempi yobuchwepheshe” yamanje.

NgoMsombuluko, idatha yokwehla kwamandla emali kanye namanani abakhiqizi yangoJuni izobe isiphumile futhi kuvunyelwene ukuze kuqhutshekwe nokufundwa kokushoda. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kwabathengi kulindeleke ukuthi kufike ku-0.2% unyaka nonyaka, kungashintshile kusuka ku-0.2% ngo-Ephreli, okuyizinyanga ezingama-26. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amanani abakhiqizi kulindeleke ukuthi ehle aye ku-5% unyaka nonyaka esuka ku-4.6% ngoMeyi. Uma kwenzeka njengoba bekulindelekile, kuzoba yinyanga yesishiyagalolunye ilandelana yokufinyela okwandisa ubungozi bokwehla kwamandla emali eChina.

NgoLwesibili, ukukhula kwezimali ezibolekiwe okusele kanye nemininingwane yokunikezwa kwemali engu-M2 kuzokhishwa. Ukukhula kwemali mboleko kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle kancane kuye ku-11.2% unyaka nonyaka ngoJuni kusuka ku-11.4% ngoMeyi; ijubane layo lokunyuka elibuthakathaka kusukela ngoJanuwari 2023.

NgoLwesine, ibhalansi yohwebo yangoJuni izobe ingaphandle ukukala izimo zakamuva ezidingweni zangaphandle nezangaphakathi. Ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzoncipha ngesilinganiso esingaphansi kuka--3.1% unyaka nonyaka sisuka ku-7.5% ngoMeyi, okuyinani eliphansi lezinyanga ezintathu. Ukukhula kwezimpahla eziphuma kwamanye amazwe kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzokwehla ngezinga elingaphansi kuka -2 % unyaka nonyaka lisuka ku -4.5% ngoMeyi. Uma kuvela njengoba kubikezelwe, kuzoba yinyanga yesine ilandelana yokwehla kokuthenga, okubonisa ukuqhubeka kwesimo esintengayo sesidingo sasekhaya.

Ingiya

NgoLwesithathu, ukwehla kwamandla emali kwabathengi ngoJuni kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzokwehla kancane kuye ku-4.1% unyaka nonyaka isuka ku-4.25% ngoMeyi, okuyizinga eliphansi kakhulu lokukhula kusukela ngo-April 2021. Ngokwesisekelo senyanga nenyanga, ukwehla kwamandla emali kubathengi kubikezelwa ukuthi intshi yehle iya ku-0.3% isuka ku-0.51% ngoMeyi.

Ukwehla kwamandla emali ezitolo ezinkulu ngoJuni kuzokhishwa ngosuku olulandelayo futhi kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzokwehla kuye ku--3.7% unyaka nonyaka kusuka ku-3.48% ngoMeyi. Uma kuvela njengoba bekulindelekile, kuzoba yinyanga yesithathu ilandelana yokufinyela.

Ukusonga isonto, ibhalansi yokuhweba ngoJuni izophuma ngoLwesihlanu.

Australia

Imininingwane emibili ebalulekile izophuma ngoLwesibili; Ukuzethemba kwabathengi be-Westpac kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kakhulu kuye ku-3.2% inyanga nenyanga ngoJulayi ukusuka ku-0.2% erekhodiwe ngoJuni. Ngokuphambene, i-NAB Business Confidence yangoJuni ibikezelwa ukuthi izowohloka kakhulu iye ku- -6 isuka -4 ngoMeyi.  

Okulindelwe ngabathengi ngo-Jul kuzokhishwa ngoLwesine, kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle kancane kufinyelele ku-4.9% kusuka ku-5.2% ngoJuni.

E-New Zealand

Isinqumo senqubomgomo yezimali ye-RBNZ singoLwesithathu, kungekho shintsho olulindelekile ngemuva kokuthi ibhange eliphakathi likhuphule izinga lemali elisemthethweni kwabangu-12.th isikhathi esilandelanayo ngoMeyi. Lokhu kuyise ku-5.5%, okuyizinga eliphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngoDisemba 2008. 

Japan

NgoMsombuluko, imali enqwabelene ye-akhawunti yamanje kaMeyi kulindeleke ukuthi inciphe kancane iye ku-JPY1,884.5 billion isuka ku-JPY1,895.1 billion ngo-April. Izimali ezibolekwa ngamabhange ngoJuni kulindeleke ukuthi zehle ziye ku-1.6% unyaka nonyaka zisuka ku-3.4% ngoMeyi.

I-Eco Watchers Survey, igeji yombono womkhakha wesevisi wase-Japan ibikezelwa ukuthi izothuthuka iye ku-56 ngoJuni isuka ku-55 eqoshwe ngoMeyi, ukufundwa kwayo okuphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngoDisemba 2021. Uma kwenzeka njengoba kulindelekile, kuzoba yinyanga yesihlanu ilandelana yokwenyuka. umuzwa womkhakha wenkonzo.

Ama-oda emishini kaMeyi azokhishwa ngoLwesithathu. Ukuvumelana kulindeleke ukuthi kunciphe ukwehla kokukhula kuye ku--0.2% unyaka nonyaka kusuka ku-5.9% ngo-Ephreli.

Singapore

I-Flash Q2 GDP izophuma ngoLwesihlanu; abanye ababikezeli babiza ukwehla komnotho lapho -0.2% ibikezelwa ngekota-on-quarta ye-Q2. Uma kuvela njengoba kulindelekile, kuzoba ikota yesibili elandelanayo yokukhula okungekuhle ngemva kokufunda kwe-Q1 okungu- -0.7% q/q.

Ngonyaka nonyaka, i-Q2 GDP ibikezelwa ukuthi izokwehla ngo-0.1% isuka ku-0.4% erekhodiwe ku-Q1.  

Ikhalenda Economic

NgoMgqibelo, Julayi 8

Imicimbi Yezomnotho

UNobhala woMgcinimafa waseMelika uYellen useChina kuze kube yiSonto lapho ezohlangana khona nezikhulu eziphezulu zikahulumeni

IMonetary Authority yaseSingapore ibize iPhini likaNdunankulu uWong njengosihlalo webhange eliphakathi

Ongqongqoshe bezangaphandle base-ASEAN kanye nozakwabo abavela e-US, China, Russia, nabanye ozakwethu ababalulekile

NgeSonto, Julayi 9

Idatha Yezomnotho / Imicimbi

I-China ihlanganisa uxhaso lwezimali, ukuhlinzekwa kwemali, ukubolekwa kwe-yuan okusha

UMongameli waseMelika uJoe Biden uhambele ingqungquthela yama-74 ye-NATO

Abenzi bezinqubomgomo ze-ECB u-Villeroy, u-Centeno, no-de Cos, kanye noMbusi waseBhange LaseNgilandi u-Bailey bakhuluma engqungqutheleni ye-Les Rencontres Economiques d'Aix-en-Provence 2023

I-Australian Conference of Economists e-Brisbane kuze kube ngoLwesithathu

UMsombuluko, Julayi 10

Idatha Yezomnotho / Imicimbi

I-CPI yaseChina, i-PPI

Ibhalansi yezinkokhelo zase-Japan

Ukuthengiswa kwekhaya laseNew Zealand

I-Singapore GDP

Izimpahla ezisezingeni eliphakeme zase-US

I-Fed's Daly izoxoxa ngokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokuqondisa kwebhange emcimbini we-Brookings Institution

I-Fed's Mester ikhuluma ngombono wezomnotho nenqubomgomo emcimbini osingathwa yiNyuvesi yaseCalifornia eSan Diego.

I-Fed's Bostic ikhuluma eCobb Chamber of Commerce

I-Fed's Barr engxoxweni e-Bipartisan Policy Center mayelana nokugadwa kwebhange, ukulawulwa, kanye nezidingo zemali entsha.

UMbusi we-BOE u-Bailey wethula inkulumo ku-Financial and Professional Services Dinner

I-Riksbank ikhipha amaminithi kusukela kumhlangano wangoJuni 28

UChancellor Scholz waseJalimane, uNdunankulu wase-Australia u-Albanese ingqungquthela yezindaba ehlanganyelwe

Lesibili, Julayi 11

Idatha Yezomnotho / Imicimbi

Ukuzethemba kwabathengi base-Australia

I-Germany CPI, okulindelwe kuhlolo lwe-ZEW

Ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni e-Italy

Isitoko semali saseJapan, ama-oda wamathuluzi womshini

Izinqolobane zomhlaba waseMexico

INingizimu Afrika ikhiqiza umkhiqizo

I-akhawunti yamanje yaseTurkey

Izimangalo zase-UK ezingasebenzi, ukungasebenzi

UFed's Bullard ukhuluma emhlanganweni weNational Association for Business Economics

I-NATO ibamba ingqungquthela yayo yaminyaka yonke

NgoLwesithathu, ngoJulayi 12

Idatha Yezomnotho / Imicimbi

I-US CPI

Isinqumo sezinga laseCanada: Kulindeleke ukuthi kukhushulwe amanani ngo-25bps ukuya ku-5.00%

I-India CPI, ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni

Japan PPI, imishini oda

Ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni eMexico

Isinqumo sezinga le-New Zealand

I-Russia CPI

I-Spain CPI

Ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni eTurkey

UMongameli waseMelika uBiden uvakashele eHelsinki engqungqutheleni yase-US-Nordic  

I-US Federal Reserve ikhipha inhlolovo yezomnotho yesifunda ye-Beige Book

I-Vujcic ye-ECB ikhuluma ngenqubomgomo yezimali kanye nombono wendawo ye-euro

Isazi sezomnotho esiyinhloko se-ECB uLane kanye no-Fed's Kashkari bakhuluma kuphaneli mayelana ne-solvency yasebhange kanye nenqubomgomo yezimali emcimbini weNational Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute 2023.  

I-Fed's Mester ikhuluma nge-FedNow emcimbini we-NBER

I-Fed's Bostic ikhuluma ku-2023 Payments Inclusion Forum yasebhange

Umeluleki wezomnotho we-White House u-Brainard uzokhuluma ne-Economic Club yaseNew York

UMbusi we-BOE u-Bailey engqungqutheleni yezindaba ngemiphumela yombiko wokusimama kwezezimali kanye nokuhlolwa kwengcindezi yesistimu yasebhange yase-UK

I-BOE's Breeden kanye noFoulger kafushane ngombiko wokuzinza

U-RBA Gov Lowe uzokhuluma emcimbini obuhambisana neNgqungquthela Yase-Australia Yezomnotho eBrisbane

I-Far East Grain Forum 2023 e-Vladivostok, eRussia

NgoLwesine, ngoJulayi 13

Idatha Yezomnotho / Imicimbi

Izimangalo zokuqala zase-US ezingenamsebenzi, i-PPI

Ukuhweba kweChina

Ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni kwe-Eurozone

I-France CPI

Ukuhweba kwa-Israyeli

Izintengo zokudla zaseNew Zealand, i-PMI yokukhiqiza

Ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni zase-UK

UMongameli waseFrance u-Emmanuel Macron uphatha uNdunankulu waseNdiya uNarendra Modi

I-EU-Japan Summit e-Brussels nokuvela kuNdunankulu waseJapan u-Kishida

UMongameli waseFrance uMacron uphatha uNdunankulu waseNdiya uModi esidlweni sakusihlwa eParis

ULwesihlanu, Julayi 14

Idatha Yezomnotho / Imicimbi

Imizwa yabathengi base-US University of Michigan

Izinzuzo Zebhange ezivela kwa-JPMorgan, Citigroup, nase-Wells Fargo

ICanada ekhona yokuthengisa ekhaya

Ukuhweba kwe-India, amanani ashibhile

Ukuhweba kwe-Italy

Japan ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni

IPoland CPI

Thailand angaphandle reserves

Ongqongqoshe bezezimali be-G20 kanye nababusi bamabhange amakhulu bahlangana eNdiya

Ukubuyekezwa Kwesilinganiso Sombusi

I-EFSF (Fitch)

I-ESM (Fitch)

I-Ireland (Fitch)

I-Spain (Moody's)

I-Iceland (Moody's)

I-Austria (DBRS)

Okuqukethwe okwezinjongo zolwazi olujwayelekile kuphela. Akusona iseluleko sokutshala izimali noma isixazululo sokuthenga noma ukuthengisa izibambiso. Imibono ngababhali; hhayi ngempela eye-OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. nanoma yiziphi izinhlaka zayo, izinkampani ezingaphansi kwayo, izikhulu noma abaqondisi. Uma ungathanda ukukhiqiza kabusha noma ukusabalalisa kabusha noma yikuphi okuqukethwe okutholakala ku-MarketPulse, i-forex ewina umklomelo, impahla kanye nokuhlaziywa kwezinkomba zomhlaba jikelele kanye nensizakalo yesayithi yezindaba ekhiqizwe yi-OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., sicela ufinyelele okuphakelayo kwe-RSS noma usithinte ku- [i-imeyili ivikelwe]. Vakashela https://www.marketpulse.com/ ukuze uthole okwengeziwe mayelana nokushaya kwezimakethe zomhlaba. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Craig Erlam

Uzinze e-London, u-Craig Erlam ujoyine i-OANDA ngo-2015 njengomhlaziyi wemakethe. Njengoba enolwazi lweminyaka eminingi njengomhlaziyi wemakethe yezezimali kanye nomhwebi, ugxila kukho kokubili ukuhlaziya okuyisisekelo nobuchwepheshe ngenkathi ekhiqiza ukuphawula kwe-macroeconomic. Imibono yakhe ishicilelwe ku-Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph kanye ne-International Business Times, futhi uvela njengomhlaziyi ovamile wezivakashi ku-BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business kanye ne-SKY News. U-Craig unobulungu obugcwele beNhlangano Yabahlaziyi Bezobuchwepheshe futhi waziwa njengochwepheshe Wezezimali Oqinisekisiwe yi-International Federation of Technical Analysts.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Okuthunyelwe kwakamuva kuka-Craig Erlam (bona konke)

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