• Japan last intervened in October when dollar-yen prices were at 150
• Fed rate hike odds fall to 10% for the September 20th meeting
• Japan’s material inflation data continues fell to 3.6% from a year earlier, lowest reading since March 2021

The dollar weakened against most of its major trading partners after soft inflation data supported the Fed’s case to keep rates on hold in September.  Yen traders watched global stocks surge, which put a dent in demand for safe-havens.  Dollar-yen is now rallying above the 144 level as Japanese officials grow nervous that they may need to intervene.  We should start getting some verbal intervention now that we are getting closed to levels that triggered action last fall.

EUR/JPY approaches overbought territory

The euro has had quite the run against the yen.  The bullish channel that has largely held up over the last couple of years is showing prices have exceeded the upper boundaries and it might be difficult for the rally to extend.  So far tweaks by the BOJ have had no impact in providing support for the yen, so pressure should build for bolder action.

Commodities in focus

Oil

After an impressive couple of days of gains, crude prices are softening as energy traders await to see what happens with some of the supply side risks.  The monthly OPEC report delivered another reminder that the oil market will remain tight throughout the rest of the year.  With OPEC+ doing whatever it takes to keep crude prices supported, the oil market might see a 2-million barrel supply deficit this quarter.

Oil has had a nice run up, but some of that was the Russian-Ukraine conflict which has yet to lead to a meaningful disruption of Russian oil shipments.  Oil prices are likely to head higher, so any dips will likely be bought into.

Gold

Gold prices initially surged after soft inflation data, but those gains withered away as investors decided stocks would outperform.  A peak in the dollar might be in place, but gold won’t be surging if Wall Street continues to buy up stocks.  Sentiment has been softening for gold as ETF holdings have dropped to the lowest levels since March. If the market becomes even more convinced that a soft landing is in place, gold will probably struggle.

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