• Medium-term breadth condition (% of Nasdaq 100 stocks above 50-day MA) has reached an overbought condition that led to significant corrective declines in past occasions on 16 August 2022, 1 December 2022, and 19 July 2023.
• Broke below the 20-day moving average.
• Watch the 15,690 near-term support as a potential downside trigger.

Bu, önceki raporumuzun bir takip analizidir, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Relentless bullish move” 21 Kasım 2023'te yayınlandı. Tıklayınız okuyun özet için

fiyat hareketleri ABD Nas 100 Endeksi (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 futures) have inched higher since our prior publication and tested the first resistance of 19,160 last Wednesday, 29 November, and failed to make any breakthrough above it so far.

Several technical elements have not flashed warning signs of an impending potential corrective decline to retrace a portion of the prior five-week rally of 15% from the 26 October 2023 low of 14,060.

Overstretched medium-term breadth condition

Şekil 1: 100 Aralık 7 itibarıyla US Nas 2023 orta vadeli trendi (Kaynak: TradingView, grafiği büyütmek için tıklayın)

The rise in the number of Nasdaq 100 component stocks that are trading above their respective medium-term 50-day moving averages has reached close to overstretched/overbought condition at 84% (recorded 77% on 1 December 2023) where past price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 Index has reacted negatively that led to significant corrective pullbacks on 16 August 2022, 1 December 2022, and 19 July 2023.

In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator has broken below the parallel support at the 58 level after it reached an overbought region on 20 November 2023 which also advocates a potential corrective pull-back in price actions.

Broke below 20-day moving average

Şekil 2: 100 Aralık 7 itibarıyla US Nas 2023 küçük kısa vadeli trend (Kaynak: TradingView, grafiği büyütmek için tıklayın)

Current price actions have broken below the 20-day moving average and the ascending channel support from 27 October 2023 low.

In the short-term, watch the 16,160 key short-term pivotal resistance and a break below 15,690 exposes the next intermediate supports at 15,380 and 15,175 (also the 50-day moving average & close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from 26 October 2023 low to 29 November 2023 high).

On the other hand, a clearance above 16,160 revives the bullish tone to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 16,310 and 16,590 (major swing high areas around the 16,772 all-time high level printed on 22 November 2021).

İçerik yalnızca genel bilgi amaçlıdır. Yatırım tavsiyesi veya menkul kıymet alıp satma çözümü değildir. Görüşler yazarlardır; OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc.'in veya bağlı kuruluşlarının, yan kuruluşlarının, memurlarının veya müdürlerinin olması zorunlu değildir. OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. tarafından üretilen ödüllü bir forex, emtia ve küresel endeksler analizi ve haber sitesi hizmeti olan MarketPulse'ta bulunan herhangi bir içeriği çoğaltmak veya yeniden dağıtmak isterseniz, lütfen RSS beslemesine erişin veya şu adresten bizimle iletişime geçin: [e-posta korumalı]. Ziyaret https://www.marketpulse.com/ küresel pazarların ritmi hakkında daha fazla bilgi edinmek için. © 2023 OANDA Ticari Bilgiler ve Hizmetler A.Ş.