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Pirate Weekly Meeting | 2.19.2020

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Bitcoin Price Eyes $12,000 Following US Fed Chair Powell Talks

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  • Bitcoin’s price finally made a worthwhile move after surging to $11,840 on Bitstamp following days of stagnation.
btcusdh_chart
BTC/USD. Source: TradingView
  • The price has since retraced a bit to trade at its current level of around $11,780. Nevertheless, this is a move in the right direction as concerns started crippling up that we might be in for a fill of the CME gap down at $11,100.
  • Bitcoin is trading approximately only $700 away from the $12,500 area – the 2020 highest level that was reached on August 17. The next major resistance for BTC now lies at $12,000 – $12,100.
  • The move came soon after the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, spoke on a panel hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • During the event, he said that the US is “committed to carefully and thoughtfully evaluating the potential costs and benefits of a CBDC (Centra Bank Digital Currency) for the US economy and payments system.”
  • He also said that it’s better to be right than be first on CBDCs.
  • Interestingly enough, BTC’s move appears to be uncorrelated to the US stock market. At the time of this writing, the S&P 500 is down about 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is down about 0.3%.
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.


Source: https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-price-eyes-12000-following-us-fed-chair-powell-talks/

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33 Years Since Wall Street’s Black Monday: Have We Learnt Nothing? (Opinion)

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They say that to see the future, one should only learn history. Oftentimes, though, we tend to ignore history altogether.

Exactly 33 years ago, on this day, October 19th, 1987, Wall Street and global markets tumbled in a massive selloff that saw the S&P 500 lose about 20% and the DJIA about 22%.

One might think that this is something that we don’t want happening again and that the economic policies would be structured in a way where massive national debt doesn’t mount up. Here we are, 33 years later, and the US national debt has increased by roughly 12 times.

But it doesn’t matter, right? The Fed can always just “print more money,” as the former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve has said.

Rolling Back to 1987: What Happened and Why it Matters?

The year is 1985. The United States policymakers and economists decided that the time is ripe for a shift in the direction. As such, they moved to a slower expansion approach, unlike the state of rapid recovery from the recession in the early 1980s.

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Fast forward a few years when on October 14th, 1987, the House Committee on Ways and Means introduced a tax bill that was aimed at reducing the benefits associated with financing leveraged buyouts and mergers.

October 19th comes, and traders, analysts, and economists found themselves dismayed as markets took a beating. The S&P dropped by over 20%, while the DJIA was down 22% in a single session. Additionally, markets from across the world were also bleeding out, making this into a global downturn.

black_monday
Dow Jones during Black Monday of 1987. Source: Wikipedia

Back then, Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller surveyed 889 investors right after the drops to find the reason, according to them. Most of them said that it was perhaps brought on by “too much indebtedness.”

Looking at historical data, the US national debt in 1987 was around $2.3 trillion, representing 48% of the country’s GDP.

Learn From History, or You’re Destined to Repeat It… Right

The year is now 2020, and we just saw the third quarter closing down. In March, there was another Black Swan event that saw global markets tumble in response to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus COVID-19. Countries were literally locked down, and economies suffered as a consequence.

The US was no exception. In fact, it’s the current leader in terms of total cases of COVID-19. However, it’s worth noting that this year, unlike back in 1987, there was an obvious trigger as global economies were virtually shut down in response to the outbreak.

Their response, however, was criticized by many. Data shows that the US national debt has grown to $26.5 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2020. This represents 136% of the country’s GDP. In fact, the debt increased by around $4 trillion this year alone. For reference, it grew with that much from 2015 to 2019 combined.

When there’s an obvious uncertainty of how the world will handle the pandemic, US stock markets are charting all-time highs. And all of this was made possible by the trillions of dollars printed to bail out huge corporations.

This Time Could Be Different… But Will It?

Of course, this time, we have Bitcoin – a scarce digital asset that comes with pre-programmed inflation that will, eventually, disperse.

However, it also challenges the very essence of what banks are created for. It’s the first real attempt to separate money from state and … well, that’s scary for some.

Bitcoin’s censorship resistance, immutability, actual transparency, and, most of all, digital scarcity are just some of its inherent qualities that could make a change. However, it’s definitely questionable if and when that will happen.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/33-years-since-wall-streets-black-monday-have-we-learnt-nothing-opinion/

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Bitcoin Miner Daily Revenue Slumps to $345K Amid Rising Wrapped BTC and HODLing Frenzy

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It is a well-known fact now, that the Bitcoin blockchain is considerably processing fewer transactions than it’s ‘Ethereum’ counterpart. And this decline in transaction processing has significantly reduced the revenue of miners as well. How much? Well, on-chain analysis firm Glassnode points to numbers that are at a 5-month low.

Bitcoin Miner Revenue Touches 5-Month Low

As per the latest update from Glassnode, miner earnings on the largest cryptocurrency network dropped drastically to a 5-month low figure of 30 BTC/day.

This declining trend in bitcoin miner revenue clearly portrays the disinterest amongst traders and investors to conduct transactions on the BTC network. Since they have dropped, miners don’t have much to process. And why is that? Well, for starters, ultra-low volatility levels, even after BTC remaining above $10,000 for quite a long time.

Although there were some exciting price actions at the beginning of the year. And around mid-2020 (when BTC flew above $12k), the BTCUSD realized volatility has touched 33 percent in the last 1-Month, and 27 percent in the last 10 days, according to skew’s analysis below.

Folks don’t want to trade with their bitcoin holdings. Instead, they are moving to other avenues to put their BTC to much more ‘constructive’ use.

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Wrapped BTC Soaring Like As If There’s No Tomorrow

Multiple data sources suggest that bitcoin holders are tokenizing their BTC stash en-masse, in order to leverage the DeFi boom to reap ‘instant profits’. According to Dune Analytics, the total supply of Wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC) on Ethereum surpassed 100,000.

wrapped btc supply
Wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC) Supply Now Above 100,000, Source: Dune Analytics

This has led the total USD value locked in wrappedBTC to rally way past $1 billion throughout October, and it’s still steadily increasing with the current numbers approaching the $1.25 billion number.

Wrapped bitcoin valuation
Total USD Locked in WrappedBTC Surpassed $1 billion, Source: DeFi Pulse

It is the third most popular avenue only preceded by Uniswap and Maker. IntotheBlock that uses machine learning to arrive at significant blockchain data points, notes that wrappedBTC has experienced explosive growth throughout 2020. This can actually be seen from the chart above.

More ‘100+ BTC Owners’ Have Now Entered The Ecosystem

As mentioned above, people are not trading bitcoins. Either they are tokenizing them on Ethereum or they are buying more. The latest data set from Glassnode shows that the number of BTC addresses holding 100+ coins has been on the rise, and has reached a ‘6-month high’.

This explains why bitcoin miner fees have dropped to a ‘5-month low’ and also is a pretty bullish indicator as far as future market outlook is concerned.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-miner-revenue-slumps-to-345000-amid-rising-wrapped-btc-and-hodling-frenzy/

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