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June Market Outlook

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Best of Times, Worst of Times

The title of this month’s newsletter is “Best of Times, Worst of Times”, which borrows from the opening lines of the Charles Dickens 19th century classic, “A Tale of Two Cities”.

Similar to the extreme juxtapositions described in Dickens’ famous opening lines, today we are grappling with a number of striking contrasts: A record run-up in equity prices alongside an unprecedented speed in economic contraction and unemployment. The successful launch of the historic first SpaceX manned commercial space flight occurring alongside the Black Lives Matter protests. And so on.

Earlier this year we launched our monthly outlook series of blog posts and video discussions, and we’re pleased to offer you our latest thoughts below on what’s driving crypto markets and other topics relevant for understanding the rapidly evolving blockchain technology landscape. Here are some of the highlights from our June outlook:

Summary

1.Market movements: Crypto outperformed stocks and gold in May, but concerns arise over return to 1999/2017 equities/crypto market “frothiness”

  • Crypto continued to rebound from its mid-March lows with bitcoin (BTC) up 10% in May
  • Crypto is now the best performing asset in 2020; bitcoin is up 34% for the year and is now well outperforming assets it lagged behind as of last month such as long-dated US Treasuries (eg TLT ETF + 21%)
  • Manic price episodes may be an inherent part of cryptoasset adoption but also less desirable in the current era of tighter integration with traditional capital markets

2.On-chain insights: Highlights from the Blockchain.com data science team

  • The best time of day and days of the week to send bitcoin transactions are morning GMT and Monday, respectively
  • Rising use in May of Blockchain.com products seen in the Ivory Coast, Dominican Republic, Nigeria, and the United States, while some countries hit particularly hard by COVID (eg Italy, China, Brazil) have shown a drop
  • Bitcoin ownership concentration analysis: Over 3m addresses hold at least 0.1 BTC (~$945 USD), and just under 1m addresses hold 1 BTC (~$9,451 USD)

3. George Floyd, Black Lives Matter and Crypto

  • BLM-driven rise in use of the Signal messaging app bodes well for crypto adoption, as does parallels with factors that drove 2008 adoption of M-pesa payment system in Kenya

4. COVID and rising US-China tensions: How will we pay for it?

  • Rising costs associated with COVID, US-China tensions moving to the “front burner”, and other forces will expand ongoing financial repression, which in turn will drive more people to use cryptoassets
  • Crypto interest and savings products help savers mitigate the impact of low interest rates and may be a key driver of cryptoasset adoption

5. What we’re reading, hearing, watching

1. Market movements: Crypto outperformed stocks and gold in May as the US dollar and Treasuries weakened; bulls and bears debate meaning of 1999/2017-esque frothiness

May was a strong month across most “risk-on” assets such as US equities and tech stocks in particular, with the US dollar and long-dated Treasuries selling off-slightly.

In May cryptoasset markets continued to bounce back from their “Black Thursday” March low for the year, with bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) up an almost identical 10.5% and 10.6%, respectively, in May (Table 1).

Table 1: Price Comparison (% Change): Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, US Equities, Long-dated US Treasuries, US Dollar

Sources: Blockchain.com, Google Finance

Crypto experienced a strong price rally last spring and now no longer eclipses all other major asset categories over the trailing twelve months; both gold and long-dated bonds have outperformed bitcoin over this period. While Ethereum has more than twice as high percentage gain compared to bitcoin in 2020, it still lags significantly behind bitcoin over the past 12-months.

As we publish this month’s Outlook some “rationality” appears to be returning to US equity markets, which have recently seen trading action reminiscent of the late-1990s dot.com tech stock and 2017 crypto bubbles.

Companies like Hertz (HTZ) that have declared bankruptcy and risk seeing equity holders completely wiped out have seen prices rally sometimes over 10x. Some of this price action appears aided or possibly led by substantial retail speculation. In crypto markets, a number of “altcoins” have also seen dramatic price increases, such as Kyber Networks (KNC) which more than doubled over the last several weeks.

How should crypto market participants interpret this recent dramatic price action?

Are price mania episodes essential to significant increases in crypto adoption?

One question that is often debated in cryptoasset markets is whether dramatic price swings are an inherent part of the process of sustained cryptoasset price appreciation.

Looking at history, crypto markets have experienced a number of arguably manic “bubble” episodes since bitcoin launched over 11 years ago. While the sell-offs from such speculative episodes have frequently been extraordinary, prices have subsequently stabilized at levels higher than where they started at the outset of the speculative period (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Major bitcoin price rises and subsequent corrections have generally stabilized at ever higher price levels

While crypto bubbles receive significant attention, there are periods in bitcoin’s history where what can be characterized as less dramatic, relatively steadier price appreciation was experienced. For example, bitcoin showed measured price gains (by bitcoin standards) from its mid-2015 lows to the end of 2016 (Figure 2).

Figure 2: During mid-2015 through end of 2016 Bitcoin’s price showed sustained and significant appreciation without “manic” price exuberance

During this 18-month period bitcoin’s price, after stabilizing in 2015 in the ~$250 range for an approximately six-month period, climbed into the ~$400 range for a number of months . Bitcoin’s price then moved upwards again into the ~$500-$600 range for a shorter period of time. Towards the end of 2016 the price then started more rapidly ascending to ~$1,000, setting up a dramatic ~20x price increase in 2017.

While it might be tempting to wish for a return of heady 2017 price action, it remains an open question whether less dramatic periods along the lines of those witnessed in 2015–16 are “healthier” and ultimately more constructive for longer-term cryptoasset adoption than the manic periods, which we appear to be seeing some early evidence of a possible return to recently.

Manic periods attract significant media attention, which in turn boosts awareness and fan powerful psychological drivers of adoption (so-called “FOMO”, or fear of missing out). Manic episodes have also certainly expanded crypto network activity in the short-term. It would be hard to argue against the importance of price mania in crypto’s rise over the past decade, and looking ahead manic episodes may prove essential to any rise from today’s tens of millions of crypto users to billions.

But manic episodes can also turn-off some newcomers to cryptoassets, who are frightened by the volatility, or arrive too late to the party and miss-time the inevitable sell-off. Dramatic sell-offs may ultimately slow down the rise of crypto use by deterring or setting back crypto adoption for extended periods.

Manic episodes also place significant emphasis on price as the driving force in using cryptoassets, overshadowing other important reasons for why the technology has been developed and adopted (eg self-custody and financial sovereignty, censorship resistance).

As we contemplate how another manic crypto bubble could play out, one potential key difference between the current era and 2017 is the increasing integration of the traditional financial system with crypto markets. The rise of US Commodities Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC) regulated futures markets, and the participation in these markets of potentially systemically important institutions, such as Renaissance Technologies, could lead to regulatory concerns over outsized and possibly destabilizing price exuberance in crypto markets. Indeed, this specific concern has already been highlighted in the Financial Stability Board’s financial stability risk assessment of cryptoasset markets.

However, there are reasons beyond mass collective amnesia to believe we may not see another episode as manic as 2017.

Today, with the development of futures and options markets, and growth in crypto borrowing/lending markets, crypto traders have more ways of speculating on downward price moves than in 2017. Indeed, in spring 2019 crypto prices began rising rapidly in a manner reminiscent of 2017, as bitcoin’s price quickly climbed above $10,000. However, price momentum was arrested well below the 2017 all-time high of ~$19,000 as traders last year moved to punish unsustainable exuberance. Today’s less lopsided crypto trading landscape may help tamp down future excessive exuberance.

2. On-chain insights: highlights from the Blockchain.com data science team

Each month we do a deep dive into on-chain data to explore interesting trends or movements, specifically for the Bitcoin network.

We start at a high level with a look at network activity in May compared to April. In short, May was a month of increased market capitalization, an increase in transactions, and an increase in the number of active addresses (Table 2).

Table 2: Bitcoin network activity — May vs April

Source: Blockchain.com

Yet when we examine the average network fees there was more congestion and a higher fee per transaction. In May, the average fee per transaction was $3.36, as opposed to $0.67 in April.

Figure 3: Increased user activity boosted network fees in May, which in turn increases network security

Source: Blockchain.com

But that’s just the average fee. It’s perhaps more useful to understand the best time to send a transaction.

To do so, it is important to know the state of the mempool to estimate — given the selected fee rates — how long it might take the network to confirm the transaction. We looked at what day of the week and hour of the day the mempool was more or less busy in May.

Around 5am UTC time, the mempool is on average 30% less busy than the daily average, while it is around 40% more busy around 2pm UTC time. As we reported in November last year, the “Bitmex effect” triggers an afternoon of more congested mempool to avoid. Mornings are found to be the sweet spot where the network will be more likely to confirm your transactions quickly.

Figure 4: Best time of the day to send a transaction is early morning Greenwich Mean Time

Source: Blockchain.com

The month of May saw really busy transaction activity towards the end of week, with mempool 30% busier on Fridays than the weekly averages. The mempool took the whole Saturday and a bit of Sunday to catch up on accumulated transactions, and Monday was the best day to send transactions with the mempool almost 30% less busy.

Figure 5: Best day to send a transaction is Monday

Source: Blockchain.com

Trending countries⁴

Another question we’re often curious about is how crypto is trending at the country level. In May we saw a number of countries increase their fraction of overall transactions, most notably Nigeria, Mexico, and the United States.

Table 3: Trending countries: increase in use in May over April

Source: Blockchain.com internal data

Meanwhile, the fraction of transactions sent from Korea, Brazil and Romania have decreased by 24.42%, 23.8% and 22.93% in comparison to April.

Table 4: Trending countries — decrease in use in May over April

Source: Blockchain.com internal data

Bitcoin ownership concentration

Another interesting way to analyze the market is to look at active wallets and examine the fund concentration

As of 5th June, here is the number of addresses that contain more than:

  • 1 USD : 22,219,444
  • 100 USD : 7,720,841
  • 1,000 USD : 2,877,749
  • 10,000 USD : 686,281
  • 100,000 USD : 140,160
  • 1,000,000 USD : 13,511
  • 10,000,000 USD : 1,578

How concentrated are funds :

  • 3,040,600 addresses (10.05% of total addresses) have more than 0.1 BTC, and represent 98.88% of total bitcoins
  • 816,632 addresses (2.7% of total addresses) have more than 1 BTC, and represent 95.04% of total bitcoins

3. George Floyd, Black Lives Matter and Crypto

Since our previous monthly outlook there have been a number of significant developments relevant to the crypto outlook, with the outrage over the death of George Floyd in the US and the now international Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests arguably the most significant.

Concerns that law enforcement may leverage social media accounts and activity to help police BLM protests may have driven the rapid growth in use of the privacy enhancing Signal app (Figure 6). The rise in the use of the Signal app suggests awareness of the importance of privacy, encryption and open source technology is growing, and this may in turn bode well for increased future use of cryptocurrency.

Figure 6: US daily downloads of the privacy enhancing Signal messaging app spiked at end of May alongside the start of Black Lives Matter protests

Source: Quartz

While there are some reports of an uptick in cryptocurrency activity related to the BLM protests, we do not yet see any statistically significant evidence of this in either our own public or internal data. But could the BLM protests aftermath help drive a similar meaningful increase in crypto use and adoption?

While the protests sparked by George Floyd’s death are ongoing and evolving, and it is interesting to note similarities between present conditions and prior periods when new payment systems were adopted. For example, the initial surge in M-pesa mobile money use in Kenya in 2008 is believed to have been driven in significant part by ethnic/political unrest and a mistrust of banks during an election season.

Kenyan ethnic unrest is thought to have played a significant role in the rapid adoption of the M-pesa payments system in 2008

Of course, bitcoin is not only an alternative payment system, but also an alternative currency (M-pesa allowed for the transfer of an existing currency). Prior academic work from Blockchain.com head of research Dr Garrick Hileman has explored common factors driving alternative currency adoption throughout history, and many of these factors are widely present today (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Five forces have historically powered growth of alternative currencies

4. COVID and rising US-China tensions: how will we pay for it?

It is still far too early to know with any degree of precision the ultimate economic and financial costs, as well the cost in human lives, of the COVID-19 crisis.

However, what is well known is that the world was already facing a world record level of total debt (government + corporate + household) prior to the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Just looking at the government balance sheet, or public debt, we know that advanced economies were already facing world war levels of debt without having entered into any such conflict (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak the world was already facing world war levels of public debt

At the same time, there is growing signs that the world’s two largest economies — the United States and China — are moving towards or already in what some are labeling a new “cold war”. Others say the evidence of hostile activities across various areas including information (misinformation), cyber and other forms of espionage, and intellectual property theft and other forms of economic conflict make it more akin to a “hot war”. The fact that a significant kinetic conflict over Taiwan or other issues in the South China Sea has not occurred yet disguises from public view to some degree the intensity of competition already occurring between the world’s two leading powers.

As Figure 8 shows, wars are expensive. Any escalation of hostilities between the United States and China could have a very negative impact on government balance sheets across two dimensions. First, the additional fiscal outlays, leading to a nominal rise in the absolute level of debt. Second, the negative hit to economic growth due to trade tensions and other negative economic spillovers that undermine growth, thereby negatively impacting the public-debt-to-GDP ratio, a key measure for assessing debt sustainability.

The dual threat of COVID and US-China tensions may lead to a situation where debts simply become unsustainable. In such a scenario there are only seven distinct mechanisms for addressing an unsustainable public debt problem (Figure 9).

Figure 9: Of the available mechanisms for addressing a sovereign debt problem, financial repression may prove the most politically feasible

In the current environment, not all of these options may be available (eg sufficient economic growth) or politically feasible or desirable (eg tax hikes, spending cuts).

Policymakers may find that financial repression, in the form of an artificial low interest rate environment enforced via yield curve control and other restrictive measures, can help erode the real value of public debt. Following World War II, financial repression and inflation helped return public debts to sustainable levels in the US, UK and other countries. Recently Fed Chairman Jay Powell took another step in this direction when he communicated the Fed’s forward interest rate guidance that near-zero rates would remain in effect at least though the end of 2022.

The question of “how will we pay for it” here is not one that policymakers alone must confront. Individuals, especially savers, must also think about how they will manage through a low-to-negative interest rate environment.

To help address this challenging environment for savers, Blockchain.com was pleased to recently announce a new interest product for bitcoin (BTC) savers where individuals can currently earn 4.5% APR (paid in bitcoin).

We anticipate that crypto interest and savings products, which are supported by a number of platforms for a range of different cryptoassets (including stablecoins), to be a key driver of cryptoasset adoption in the years to come.

5. What we’re reading, hearing, watching

Crypto

Beyond crypto

For more insights from our research team, go to our Research page and follow our Head of Research, Garrick Hileman on Twitter.

Footnotes:

  1. The number of confirmed transactions in the public blockchain
  2. The number of confirmed transactions sent from our Blockchain Wallet and API
  3. Average daily number of unique addresses used as inputs and outputs in the confirmed transactions
  4. Based on a subset of our wallet users. The top 10 excludes countries with fewer than 0.3% of total number of transactions


June Market Outlook was originally published in @blockchain on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Source: https://medium.com/blockchain/june-market-outlook-4ef1ee16647a?source=rss—-8ac49aa8fe03—4

Blockchain

$100M Liquidated From Compound Following Flash Loan Exploit

Opportunistic profiteering using flash loans have been at the heart of many losses in the DeFi space in 2020. DAI/USD Peg on Coinbase Malfunctions According to DeFi lending analytics provider LoanScan, about $103 million has been liquidated from the Compound protocol. Tweeting on Nov. 26, Julien Bouteloup pointed to massive liquidation volume on Compound due … Continued

The post $100M Liquidated From Compound Following Flash Loan Exploit appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Lenders on DeFi protocol Compound (COMP) have once again fallen victim to another flash loan exploit, this time to the tune of over $100 million.

Opportunistic profiteering using flash loans have been at the heart of many losses in the DeFi space in 2020.

DAI/USD Peg on Coinbase Malfunctions

According to DeFi lending analytics provider LoanScan, about $103 million has been liquidated from the Compound protocol.

Tweeting on Nov. 26, Julien Bouteloup pointed to massive liquidation volume on Compound due to an error from the Dai (DAI) dollar peg data supplied by the Coinbase oracle.

Data from TradingView shows the DAI-dollar peg on Coinbase climbing to $1.34, a 34% premium on the actual value of the stablecoin. An inspection of the DAI price across the market shows the issue occurred only on Coinbase.

Compound
Coinbase DAI/USDC peg data from Tradingview

In all, the DAI peg deviation reportedly lasted between 7:45 AM (UTC) and 8:55 PM (UTC). At the height of the problem, DAI remained at $1.34 on Coinbase for a full four minutes.

Due to the incorrect price feed from the Coinbase oracle, some Compound users became under-collateralized. Based on the baked-in protocol rules, this meant a forced liquidation of their positions.

With numerous flash loan arbitrage bots scouring the market for such opportunities, it’s perhaps unsurprising that some entities benefitted from the situation. The third-largest COMP farmer was reportedly one of the affected users, losing about $49 million in the process.

Details of the Compound Attack

Commenting on the loss, DeFi trader Sam Priestley identified the victim as a leveraged COMP farmer who failed to keep his DAI and USDC stash in separate wallets.

Thus, the liquidator was able to take the DAI balance to offset the debt occasioned by the under-collateralized loan while earning a cool $3.7 million from the token swap process.

In summary, the attacker took a 46 million DAI flash loan and swapped the same for 2.4 billion cDAI. Converting the 2.4 billion cDAI yielded 46.2 million DAI.

The attacker then repaid the flash loan of 46 million DAI and was left with 170.9 million cDAI which is equivalent to $3.5 million in profits. In another tweet by Alex Savenik, the CEO of on-chain data analytics outfit Nansen, one other COMP farmer lost $17.5 million in the exploit.

Earlier in November, the Origin Dollar project lost about $7 million in another flash loan “attack.” Entities continue to leverage vulnerabilities in contract codes, liquidity pools, and even oracle data to score millions of dollars from DeFi platforms.

Indeed, Thursday’s Compound flash loan exploit highlights the dangers of relying on centralized price oracles.

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Osato is a reporter at BeInCrypto and Bitcoin believer based in Lagos, Nigeria. When not immersed in the daily happenings in the crypto scene, he can be found watching historical documentaries or trying to beat his Scrabble high score.

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Source: https://beincrypto.com/100m-liquidated-from-compound-following-flash-loan-exploit/

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Michael Novogratz: Bitcoin Is for Everyone and You Should Have 2-3% of Your Net Worth in It

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Amidst the excitements of BTC hitting an all-time high, Bitcoin bull and ex-hedge fund manager Mike Novogratz said, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, that Bitcoin was designed for every investor. 

“Bitcoin is for everyone,” he said, adding that “Everyone should put 2% to 3% of their net worth in bitcoin and look at it in five years, and it’s going to be a whole lot more.”

Novogratz is also a former partner at Goldman Sachs and a former manager of Fortress Investment Group. In 2012, Novogratz’s net worth was about $500 million. In 2017, he revealed that 20% of his net worth is held in Bitcoin and Ethereum, from which he generated over $250 million in profit. 

Novogratz’s $20k Prediction Coming True? 

The Galaxy Digital boss is fond of predicting bitcoin price. Even after the March crash, when bitcoin traded at a yearly low of around $3,500, he was still bullish on the cryptocurrency. 

He predicted in April that bitcoin will hit $20,000 before the end of 2020 and that he might ditch the cryptocurrency if his prediction does not come true. 

With the cryptocurrency trading less than 7% away from the 2017 all-time-high price of $20,000, it might not be long before it hits a new ATH. 

Bitcoin Will Not Trade Below $12,000

As Bitcoin approaches a record-breaking price, some speculators believe the cryptocurrency might see a correction soon. However, Novogratz believes that the asset will not trade below $12,000 in this bullish trend. 

“Right now, we’re getting close to 20,000, like the old highs. Rarely does a market trade to the old highs and go right through it, right? It’s just markets usually touch the old highs, exhaust themselves, correct a little bit, and then take out the high. And so there’s big support around 14 and a half, 15,000. And so listen– 19,000 to 15,000 would feel pretty painful if you just bought it here at 19. I don’t think we’re going to get down below 12,000 again in this episode,” he said. 

Institutional Investors Pushing Bitcoin Price

The Bitcoin bull also mentioned that the current rally is driven by high net-worth individuals, hedge funds, and real institutions. He thinks participation by these larger players, alongside increased regulation, should smooth out some of the volatility.

Not only them but “Game of Thrones” actress Maisie Williams also jumped in when she did a Twitter poll last week asking whether she should long Bitcoin, to which Mike Novogratz replied, “Duh!”.

Bitcoin’s current rally is a lot quieter than its last one. Google searches for “Bitcoin” peaked in late 2017. They’re now running at about one-fifth of that level. But Novogratz said the evidence supporting bitcoin prices is better than it’s ever been. 

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/michael-novogratz-bitcoin-is-for-everyone-and-you-should-have-2-3-of-your-net-worth-in-it/

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Japanese Giant SBI Group Launched A Crypto Lending Service For Bitcoin

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  • Founded in 1999, SBI Group is a financial services company based in Tokyo, Japan. Apart from offering numerous traditional financial services, the SoftBank Group subsidiary announced today a new cryptocurrency-related endeavor.
  • SBI Group has introduced a digital asset lending service through its cryptocurrency arm – SBI VC Trade.
  • The statement informed that the platform, dubbed VC Trade Lending, will initially support only Bitcoin. However, plans include adding support for Ether (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and more cryptocurrency assets. 
  • Clients’ deposits can vary from a minimum of 0.1 BTC to a maximum of 5 BTC. After lending their bitcoin holdings on the platform, the customers will earn an interest rate of 1% with taxes included.
  • The announcement further explained that VC Trade Lending will charge fees only for withdrawals in the Japanese yen. Cryptocurrency and yen deposits, as well as account management or annual memberships, will not be subject to fees. 
  • It’s worth noting that SBI Group has been involved with other cryptocurrency-related projects before. A few years ago, the financial giant launched Japan’s first bank-backed cryptocurrency exchange. More recently, SBI Group hired two professional e-sports players and paid them in XRP. 
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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/japanese-giant-sbi-group-launched-a-crypto-lending-service-for-bitcoin/

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