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مدیر عامل مدیریت سرمایه مورگان کریک توضیح می دهد که چرا قیمت بیت کوین تا سال 150,000 باید به 2025 دلار برسد.

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In an appearance on CNBC’s “Fast Money” on March 28, Mark Yusko, the founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, shared his thoughts on the cryptocurrency market.

Yusko’s forecast for Bitcoin is notably bullish, predicting a potential rise to $150,000 within the next year. This projection is underpinned by a mathematical model that applies Metcalfe’s Law to determine a fair current value of around $50,000 for Bitcoin. With the imminent halving event (expected around April 20, 2024), which will reduce the reward for mining new blocks, Yusko anticipates an adjustment in Bitcoin’s fair value. He says that unique to this cycle is the additional transaction fees from ordinals and inscriptions, suggesting a post-halving fair value adjustment to $75,000. Yusko believes that historical patterns post-halving indicate a surge in interest and investment, potentially driving the price to double its fair value, culminating in the $150,000 target.

با توجه به گزارش توسط Daily Hodl، او گفت:

بنابراین ما به ارزش منصفانه امروز از مدل قانون متکالف نگاه می کنیم ... که حدود 50,000 دلار به ما می دهد. نصف شدن در سه هفته اتفاق می افتد. کاری که هاوینگ انجام می دهد این است که پاداش های بلوک را کاهش می دهد، مقدار پولی که برای ایمن سازی شبکه به ماینرها داده می شود. اگر قرار بود این جوایز به نصف کاهش یابد، همانطور که انجام می شود، بسیاری از ماینرها با مشکل مواجه خواهند شد. پس از نظر تاریخی چه اتفاقی افتاده است؟ قیمت افزایش می یابد، ارزش منصفانه افزایش می یابد. بنابراین آن را به 100,000 دلار می رساند.


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"But this time it’s a little different in that instead of just block rewards, we get transaction fees because of ordinals and inscriptions. So let’s say the fair value only goes to $75,000 this time. Then post-halving you get a lot of interest in the asset, a lot of people FOMO (fear of missing out) in and we normally go to about two times fair value in the cycle ... So in the last cycle fair value was $30,000, we got to as high as $69,000. This time, I think probably two times because there’s less leverage. So that gets us to $150,000."

Yusko elaborates on the mechanics expected to fuel this price surge. According to Yusko, the upcoming halving will slash the daily supply of new coins from 900 to 450, concurrently with an anticipated increase in demand, partially driven by the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. This imbalance between supply and demand is projected to escalate the price. Yusko envisions a more exponential growth towards the end of the year, with historical trends suggesting a peak around nine months post-halving, likely aligning with the holiday season.

While Bitcoin remains the focal point of Yusko’s analysis, he also delves into other aspects of the crypto ecosystem. He mentions the impact of regulatory challenges on the market and highlights his interest in mining companies and chip makers like AMD and Nvidia. Despite high valuations in these areas, Yusko sees significant potential.

At Morgan Creek Digital, the emphasis is on investing in private companies within the crypto sector, with liquid tokens comprising a smaller portion of their portfolio. Beyond Bitcoin, Yusko is optimistic about the prospects of Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche, among others. Despite Bitcoin’s dominance and its characterization as a superior form of digital gold, he believes in the exponential growth potential of smaller projects.

Yusko reveals Morgan Creek Digital’s approach to investment in the crypto space, aligning more with a venture capital model than active trading. Their strategy predominantly involves long-term holding, though they strategically exit positions in response to specific developments, as seen in their handling of Solana and Coinbase stock.

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