Achintya Rao reviews Invention and Innovation: a Brief History of Hype and Failure by Vaclav Smil
There is a propensity in popular tech media – particularly coming out of Silicon Valley – to suggest that we are on a ceaseless march of technological growth and prosperity. This narrative of techno-optimism is certainly appealing – after all, we witnessed some tremendous, civilization-altering advances over the course of the 20th century that have improved the lives of countless millions and impacted sectors from transportation to healthcare. However, in his new book Invention and Innovation: a Brief History of Hype and Failure, environmental scientist and policy analyst Vaclav Smil advises scepticism when encountering the assertions of tech evangelists, looking at some infamous past failures and the lessons we can learn from them.
In the book, Smil puts failed inventions into three categories: those that proved to be problematic, those that left their promises unfulfilled, and those that remain unattained. To be a brief history as promised, he picks a handful of examples for each case, exploring the origins and social contexts of the inventions in great depth.
But what constitutes failure when it comes to technology? Smil notes that historians may object to the term “failed technology” because what proves to be a success is often the result of social context, and the right technology being developed in the right place at the right time. However, he argues that influence also goes the other way: whether societies embrace technology and innovation can have a profound impact on their own trajectories. For example, Smil contrasts the fall of the Soviet Union with the entrenchment of the ruling party in the People’s Republic of China through the lens of their relative abilities to innovate – in particular the latter’s success in adopting technology from abroad.
Unexpected consequences
Certain inventions are explicitly designed to do harm (think of every single weapon invented), but there are also those that aimed to solve critical problems and yet caused new, worse ones of their own.
Among the three examples Smil gives for “Inventions that turned from welcome to undesirable”, he highlights the introduction of lead into petrol to prevent car engines from “knocking” – a phenomenon in early automobiles caused by some of the gas in the engine spontaneously igniting, damaging the vehicle. Introducing an additive to the fuel reduced occurrences of knocking. Despite us knowing since the Ancient Greeks that lead is highly toxic, the metal was one of the options considered.
Smil goes on to explain that General Motors (GM) advocated heavily for the use of lead instead of alternatives such as ethanol, even going as far as dismissing the health concerns surrounding leaded fuel and claiming there were no available alternatives. Why GM took this stance comes down to money – a new industry creating an ethanol-containing fuel “could not be controlled by GM”.
Ultimately, Smil tells us, the reasons for the gradual phasing out of leaded petrol in the 1970s had little to do with the health concerns associated with lead and more to do with reducing smog in US cities. The whole incident serves as a reminder of the influence of sheer greed.
What could have been
Possibly my favourite chapter of the book focuses on inventions that looked set to dominate, but will probably never live up to their promise. Here, Smil addresses nuclear fission and supersonic flights, but I was most interested in the section on lighter-than-air flight (LTA).
The story goes back to the late 18th century and the advent of ballooning. Even by the time they took on the well-known form of “airships”, the contraptions seem almost comical by modern standards. Smil’s descriptions of the speed and distance covered by early airships make me think no-one could possibly have considered them for serious travel – and yet, for the pioneers of aviation at the time, they were the future.
Smil goes into great detail about the rise of airships during the early 20th century, when they were used for cargo deliveries, military purposes and commercial flights – although the latter application came to a swift end with the Hindenburg disaster in 1939, when 35 out of 97 passengers were killed in an explosion upon landing.
Following the Second World War, airships slowly disappeared from our skies, and my own hopes of seeing them re-emerge as a feasible means of safe and environmentally friendly transport in the 21st century were dashed by the author, as he enumerates the many reasons why airships struggled to be commercially viable in the past. From the rise of planes and jet engines, to the ever-present cloud of international politics, these obstacles will certainly continue to persist in the near future. However, some advocates do think advances in materials and propulsion could produce a modern cargo-lift solution that is both sustainable and reliable – with Smil even saying saying that “the lure of LTA craft will probably never disappear”.
Putting the “hype” in Hyperloop
Smil opens the chapter “Inventions that we keep waiting for” by looking at Elon Musk’s “Hyperloop” (a name that Smil does not approve of for etymological reasons). The proposed high-speed transportation system involves people travelling in capsules inside a very low-pressure and very straight (not a loop) metal tube. The capsules would be supported by a cushion of air, moved by a magnetic linear accelerator, and energized by solar panels.
The general concept of travel in a near vacuum is not a new one – I had no idea that it is actually more than two centuries old. It is astonishing that people were seriously considering the use of tube-based travel to cover the 600 km from London to Edinburgh in a matter of minutes, in the 19th century.
Not that these proposals were uniformly embraced. Indeed, the logistics seem to have been treated as a secondary problem, much like – as Smil reminds us – Musk seems to do today, with the entrepreneur trivializing, for example, the complicated process of route selection and approval, and the impact that kilometres of heavy-duty pylons would have on farmland.
Unglamorous innovation
Smil’s book is a measured warning not to be easily swayed by grandiosity. He reminds us that astonishing advances in some areas have been accompanied by a woeful lack of progress in other, perhaps more important ones. Given his background in environmental science, it is unsurprising that Smil calls for greater societal focus on conventionally unglamorous areas such as addressing the impending climate catastrophe and cancer eradication.
I read the book over a few weeks and found myself ruminating on several of the stories in it. There are undoubtedly other examples that Smil could have focused on – as he himself admits – but I found his choices compelling.
However, if you are looking for a deep dive into the sociology of inventions and failure, Invention and Innovation isn’t for you. I also found the framing of society as being dominated by a “scientifically illiterate” group slightly problematic, although it is hard to disagree with the fundamental premise and context in which the term is used. But for me, the book is an enjoyable and eye-opening read, and one I expect I shall return to in the future.
- 2023 The MIT Press 232pp $24.95hb
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- Source: https://physicsworld.com/a/exercising-caution-in-the-face-of-techno-optimism/
