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Can we expect bullish Bitcoin movement, as volatility could return in 3 months?

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We’re now into the third month of low volatility in the cryptocurrency markets. Owing in larger, or complete part, to Bitcoin trading in a tight trading zone between $8,800 to $10,000. But it looks like the wait for the largest cryptocurrency in the market, holding over two-thirds of the total market, to turn the tide is finally over, or at least a countdown has begun. 

Volatility is a prized part of the Bitcoin market, so much so that the cryptocurrency has been labeled as ‘too volatile’ by its traditional market peers. This volatility which has been absent since May, will likely return in the next three months according to Jay Hao, CEO of cryptocurrency spot and futures exchange OKEx

Speaking to AMBCrypto, Hao, looking at the data from the Bitcoin Options market, said that there will be “high volatility in the longer-term perspective” providing a time-range of 3 to 6 months. With the return of volatility, especially after a long period of drought, and given the leveraging tools of cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitcoin trading will undoubtedly “surge.”

Keeping this time period in mind, let’s look at the larger data of the Bitcoin Options market to get a sense of the degree and direction of this volatility once it does arrive in the time period stated by Hao. Looking at the collective market’s Bitcoin Options data i.e. for regulated and unregulated derivatives exchanges the puts to calls ratio for volume is at 0.95.

While this does mean that there are more calls traded than puts in the BTC Options market, the difference is marginal in the traded amount. However, looking at the opened amount i.e. puts to call ratio on open interest, rather than volume, it stands at 0.52, which suggests there are almost 2 calls for every put contract in the larger market. It should be noted that over a month ago, the ratio was 0.41, indicating that more puts have been accumulated on derivatives exchanges than calls, but the latter still outnumber the former. 

Bitcoin Options puts to call ratio | Source: skew

While the difference may be 2:1 in favor of the calls for the larger market, for the regulated market of the CME, the attitude is far more bullish. A recent report from Ecoinmetrics indicated that the puts to calls ratio was 1 put for every 13 calls, based on data from July 8. Based on this data, the report suggested that CME’s Bitcoin Options market’s story  “isn’t bearish.” 

In the aforementioned report, Ecoinmetrics added a caveat to this narrative, stating that while the story “isn’t bearish” the “appetite for bullish positions is dead.” During the beginning of June, the call options outnumbered the puts 30 to 1, which has now decreased to 13. So, while there isn’t an increase in puts, there isn’t an increase in calls either.

Looking at the larger picture, Hao suggests that the next 3-6 months will show increasing volatility. The derivatives market which lives off volatility is expecting more bullish than bearish movement, especially in the United States as data from CME alludes to, while the rest are less bullish but still expecting a rise than a fall.     

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/expect-more-bitcoin-price-movement-now-that-volatility-could-return-in-3-months

Blockchain

Bitcoin Price Could Triple Even After a Modest Switch From Gold, JP Morgan Says

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Despite having a complicated past, it seems that JP Morgan’s love for Bitcoin is growing every day thanks to its potential as an investment and store of value.

In a recent report, the American bank shared with its investors an analysis of Bitcoin’s current situation and possible future scenarios regarding prices and fundamental value. The bank explained that under the current conditions, Bitcoin has a good chance of increasing its price.

JP Morgan Believes Bitcoin Could be an Alternative to Gold

JP Morgan believes that investors could switch from gold to bitcoin as a way to diversify their portfolio and having another uncorrelated storage of value. This is especially important for those who don’t want to depend exclusively on gold when it comes to diversify their risk exposure:

“Even a modest crowding out of gold as an ‘alternative’ currency over the longer term would imply doubling or tripling of the bitcoin price.

The report also adds that adoption is key to increasing Bitcoin’s perceived utility, and therefore, its price. They explain that it is necessary to observe a more significant number of “economic agents” accepting cryptocurrencies as a means of payment in order to talk about a historical price appreciation scenario.

This is not far from reality. In fact, bitcoin is increasing acceptance by large economic agents (which seems to prove JP Morgan’s thesis). The recent rise in prices from $10,500 to the current $13,110 began after the payment processor Square announced a $50 million investment in Bitcoin.

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PayPal’s announcement to support the purchase and sale of cryptocurrency -BTC, ETH, BCH, and LTC for now- also further catalyzed the crypto markets’ bullish sentiment.

A Generational Thing

JP Morgan also assures that Bitcoin’s acceptance within the global financial culture goes through a cultural or generational context. As boomers leave the market and millennials take a more prominent position, Bitcoin and other digital tokens become more relevant in the investment world.

“The potential long-term upside for bitcoin is considerable as it competes more intensely with gold as an ‘alternative’ currency we believe, given that Millenials would become over time a more important component of investors’ universe.”

However, this assertion must be taken with a pinch of salt since studies reveal that Gen Z -the Millenials’ offspring- are not as enthusiastic about the use of crypto, opting for alternatives involving the digitalization of fiat money.

Jp Morgan believes Bitcoin could be largely adopted, but GenZers think otherwise
Gen Zers are not really into Bitcoin. Image: Business Insider

JP Morgan’s statements show the bank’s ability to adapt to new market trends, which is also characteristic of PayPal. Just two years ago, the bank’s CEO said Bitcoin was “worse than tulip bulbs” while PayPal’s CEO referred to Bitcoin in the same way:

“Bitcoin is the greatest scam in history. It’s a colossal pump-and-dump scheme, the likes of which the world has never seen.

Bitcoin is having a good time, with many models anticipating potential upward behavior over the next few months. The most controversial and discussed one, the stock-to-flow model, predicts that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by around 2026.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-could-double-triple-price-gold-market-jp-morgan/

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Bitcoin Just Marked New 2020 High, But This Indicator Signals Correction Incoming (BTC Price Analysis)

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Starting by looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin price had made a remarkable run since October began, gaining almost $3000 to its value.

Looking at the following long-term weekly chart, we can see this week’s greenish candle that will be closed later today. From a technical point of view, as long as the candle close price is above the $12,500 area (previous high) – we can safely say that BTC is on a healthy uptrend.

btc_oct25_w-min
BTC/USD weekly. Chart by TradingView

The Good and The Bad: New 2020 High but Bearish Divergence

Just a few hours ago, Bitcoin price recorded a new 2020 high close to $13,400 (on Binance Futures); however, the primary cryptocurrency could not hold there, and quickly slumped to $12,700 in a matter of one hour.

Looking at the shorter-term chart, the 4-hour, we can identify a bearish divergence on the RSI. This is a bearish pattern and might indicate that the buying power is fading away.

This happens when the price goes through a higher-high, but the RSI indicator is doing the opposite and going through a lower-high.

Another worrying sign is the trading volume. Since its peak volume on October 20-21, four days ago, the trading volume decreased even though the BTC price had actually gone up.

BTC Support and Resistance Levels To Watch

As mentioned above, if BTC were to correct, then the first major level of support lies at the current levels around $12.9 – $13K. If Bitcoin breaks here, then the first significant level lies at $12,700, followed by the previous 2020 high from August at $12,400 – $12,500.

From the bullish side, if Bitcoin holds the $13,000 – then the first levels of resistance lie at $13,200, followed by today’s high around $13,400. Bitcoin will be looking to break the 2019 high from June – at around $13,880.

Total Market Cap: $400 billion

Bitcoin Market Cap: $240 billion

BTC Dominance Index: 60%

*Data by CoinGecko

BTC/USD BitStamp 4-Hour Chart

btc_oct25_4h-min

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.


Source: https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-just-marked-new-2020-high-but-this-indicator-signals-correction-incoming-btc-price-analysis/

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Bitcoin Breaks New 2020 High As Total Market Cap Topped $400 Billion (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin continues with the 2020 records and just a few hours ago marked a fresh high of above $13,350. Most alternative coins followed suit with impressive increases, but the market has calmed since then. The entire cryptocurrency market clocked at above $400 billion.

Bitcoin To Yet Another 2020 High

CryptoPotato reported a few days ago that the primary cryptocurrency exceeded the August 2020 high of about $12,500 and reached $13,200. What followed was a slight retracement to about $13,000 and stagnation yesterday.

Nevertheless, the volatility returned in the past 24 hours, and BTC headed towards new highs. This time, Bitcoin broke above $13,350. In fact, according to data from Bitstamp, BTC’s new 2020 high is at $13,362.

Another sharp rejection followed, and the asset tanked briefly below $13,000. Nevertheless, the bulls have since driven it above the coveted mark, and BTC trades at about $12,940.

A compelling chart recently revealed that Bitcoin is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. If it’s to play out, the cryptocurrency could soon skyrocket even further and top its all-time high of $20,000.

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If this scenario is indeed to materialize, Bitcoin would have to break above the resistance lines at $13,420, $13,500, $13,815, and $14,000 before reaching new records.

btcusd_chart
BTC/USD. Source: TradingView

Altcoins Follow Up And Calm Down

Most alternative coins experienced similarly increased volatility as Bitcoin. Ethereum surged to a new 7-week high of nearly $420. However, ETH quickly retraced and is now hovering around $409 again.

Ripple’s highest level came at about $0,26, but XRP has since decreased to below $0.253.

Thus, on a 24-hour scale, most larger-cap altcoins have remained essentially at the same positions as yesterday, despite the brief price jumps. Chainlink and Litecoin have registered the most gains of about 3.6%. LINK trades close to $12.35, and LTC is positioned at $56.3.

heatmap
Cryptocurrency Market Heatmap. Source: Quantify Crypto

The most impressive gainer since yesterday is Filecoin. After the recent controversy and continuous price slump, FIL has surged by 45% in the past 24 hours.

Ocean Protocol (18%), Quant (17.5%), THETA (10.2%), Reserve Rights (10.2%), and Ampleforth (10%) have also increased by double-digit percentages.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.


Source: https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-breaks-new-2020-high-as-total-market-cap-tops-400-billion-market-watch/

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