In the global cryptocurrency world, the price of Bitcoin is always measured in dollars. As things stand, Bitcoin is trading at $9,200, and it has been trading around this price range for the better part of three months now. But looking at the larger picture, of a decentralized currency at a time of economic uncertainty and a global pandemic, should we really be looking at Bitcoin in dollars?
While global economic superpowers have loosed their monetary policy and have issued liquidity through their fiscal policies, other countries on the lower end of the economic spectrum do not have the central bank tools to do so. Several countries are now reeling from a further economic shock as consumption is decreasing and the global supply chain is still sparse. These countries, whose economic situation has moved from bad to worse, facing failing domestic markets, and devalued local fiat currency is exactly where we should look at how Bitcoin is priced.
Speaking to AMBCrypto, Jay Hao, the CEO of cryptocurrency spot and futures exchange OKEx stated that on the over the counter [OTC] front, we should look at Bitcoin volumes from those countries with a dismal economic situation. In such a situation the premiums paid for Bitcoin in local fiat currency will rise. He said,
“When it comes to OTC trading, we may see even more volume in those countries hardest hit by inflation in their fiat currencies. This is usually the case and when bitcoin premiums arise. “
Regional data for Bitcoin and the premiums paid for it can be analyzed looking at P2P volumes on global exchanges. Data from LocalBitcoins suggest that while 2020 saw comparatively low P2P volumes than previous years, global volumes have been rising since March. Over three months ago, P2P volumes were at $23.76 million a week, and for the week ending on 11 July, the volume was $39.03 million, a 64.68 percent increase. In fact, the first week of July saw $42.7 million in weekly volume, the highest single-week volume in 2020.
Looking at the data on an individual country basis shows the degree of this deviation between Bitcoin and fiat. Argentina, which has been going through a deep economic crisis for almost a year now, saw its highest weekly P2P volume ever last week with ARS101.44 million or $1.4 million traded, Chile and the Dominican Republic are also seeing increasing P2P volumes. Kenya, in the first week of July saw $830,000 in P2P volume, hitting a new all-time high. Other African countries like Nigeria, South Africa and Tanzania are also seeing increasing volumes.
OTC trading is indeed skyrocketing for those countries which are going through economic turmoils as their citizens are looking to Bitcoin as possible safe-havens and means of capital flight.
Social money startup Roll is announcing the raise of $1 million from Fabric Ventures, IOSG, William Mougayar and others. The additional capital brings its total funding to $2.7 million.
Launched in summer 2019, Roll allows people with followings to create their own currency and define the usefulness of that currency. For example, users might be able to redeem the social currency for access to the currency’s creator.
In a press release, IOSG’s Joyce Lin wrote, “Roll lets each creator have the freedom to determine the rules within their social economy.”
As one example, the musician Harrison First announced his social money, $FIRST, in August, promising it would allow people guest-list access when he’s on tour.
As of this writing, one $FIRST trades for about $0.05 in ETH on Uniswap. By buying an artist’s token early, though, a fan can theoretically make a bet on that creator’s future success (provided, of course, they continue to support the token).
One of Roll’s new investors, Mougayar, gave another example. Roll has a partnership with blockchain development platform Abridged that makes it possible to gate Discord communities with its tokens, so that only people who hold a certain one can get in.
“That’s an emerging use case I like,” Mougayar wrote in an email. “This is interesting because a Roll wallet is more user-friendly and more mainstream-looking in its experience.”
According to the team, there’s $500,000 worth of daily volume moving through the Roll system, which is now used by 250 creators, including one current member of CoinDesk staff and two alums.
“This marks a fundamental shift towards user-generated capital as the basis of evolution of the social web,” Roll co-founder Sid Kalla wrote in a press release.
Swiss central bank plans to test its CBDC by the end of this year. – Coinnounce
The Swiss National Bank and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) plan to test a central bank digital currency by the end of this year.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) plan to test a central bank-backed digital currency (CBDC) by the end of this year. According to the Chinese news outlet The Paper, BIS official Benoit Coeure revealed the plan on Sunday at the Bund Summit held in Shanghai. Coeure said the Swiss central bank and the BIS would issue a CBDC “in the proof-of-concept stage” by the end of 2020. This proof-of-concept will pave the way for experimenting with retail CBDC, according to Coeure, who heads the BIS Innovation Hub researching digital currencies.
The BIS also plans to work with more central banks.
In the future, the Bank for International Settlements also plans to work with more central banks, including the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Bank of Thailand, to test cross-border usage of digital currencies, said Coeure. The SNB and the BIS first partnered in October 2019 to explore digital currencies. At the time, the SNB said: “This new form of digital central bank money would be aimed at facilitating the settlement of tokenized assets between financial institutions.”
Central banks across countries experiment with CBDCs.
Many countries around the world are now showing an increased interest in CBDCs. Earlier, the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, suggested the United States was waiting to get the right proposals in place, rather than becoming the first to launch in regard with a CBDC. Several other major central banks, including the Bank of Japan, the Philippines’ central bank, are working on a CBDC. On the other hand, China has become the first major nation to go ahead with its national digital currency. Chinese consumers spent $8.8 million in digital yuan during the first week of the trial.
Analysts for JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank, wrote Friday in a report that bitcoin has “considerable” price upside in the long term, as reported by CoinDesk’s Zack Voell.
Bitcoin’s increasing use as an alternative to gold is amplified by millennials’ interest in cryptocurrency, according to the report, written by JPMorgan’s global quantitative and derivatives strategy team.
“Even a modest crowding out of gold as an alternative currency over the longer term would imply doubling or tripling of the bitcoin price from here,” the analysts wrote.
Such plaudits from the biggest of big U.S. banks represent a remarkable milestone for a digital asset launched in early 2009 with the specific aim of eliminating middlemen in payment systems.
And it’s pretty hard to resist dredging up JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s memorable remark in 2017 that bitcoin was a “fraud.”
“If you’re stupid enough to buy it, you’ll pay the price for it one day,” Dimon said at the time.
Bitcoin has climbed 82% in 2020, and it’s doubled in value since Dimon made the disparaging remark in October 2017. Those who bought the cryptocurrency are looking smart compared with shareholders in JPMorgan, whose shares have tumbled 26% in 2020, leaving the stock price roughly where it stood three years ago.
Bitcoin’s technical charts are showing signs of temporary bull fatigue.
The cryptocurrency carved out a spinning top candle on Sunday, which occurs when an asset sees two-way price action during a specific period. It is widely considered a sign of indecision in the marketplace, especially when it appears following a notable rally, which is the case here.
The candle validates signals from another technical indicator, the 14-day relative strength index, where its reading over 70 suggests that the market is overbought. The immediate support is seen at $12,500 (horizontal line on the daily chart).
Dips could be short-lived, as the cryptocurrency’s long-term bull case has been bolstered by the online payments giant PayPal’s recent decision to announce support for bitcoin.
Also, several top public companies have recently disclosed their bitcoin holdings, providing a strong vote of confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future.
Besides, the recent rally from $10,000 to $13,300 is backed by increased accumulation by large investors and looks sustainable.
As of Sunday, the whale population – clusters of addresses held by a single network participant holding at least 1,000 BTC – rose to 1,939, the highest since Sept. 2016, according to data source Glassnode.