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Bitcoin Hash Ribbon Signal Confirms ‘Great Bull Run,’ Says Analyst

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According to a digital asset investment firm executive Charles Edwards, a “Hash Ribbon” buy signal has just gone off. The daily candle close of Bitcoin (BTC) price on July 13 above $9,250 confirmed it, he said.

The last time the Hash Ribbon indicator emerged was on April 25, when the price of Bitcoin hit $7,500. Since then, BTC rallied to as high as $10,440, recording a 39% rally at its peak in June.

Edwards said:

“Bitcoin Hash Ribbons ‘Buy’ signal just confirmed. The post-Halving signal is particularly special. It will probably be a very long time until the next occurs. …and so the great bull run begins.”

Previously, Edwards explained that the Hash Ribbon signal occurs about once a year. The macro indicator factors in the hash rate and mining difficulty of the Bitcoin blockchain network.

The Hash Ribbon indicator with the 3-day chart of Bitcoin. Source: Cole Garner, TradingView.com

The Hash Ribbon indicator with the 3-day chart of Bitcoin. Source: Cole Garner, TradingView.com

What is the Hash Ribbon indicator and why are analysts optimistic?

The basic theory of the Hash Ribbon indicator is that the Bitcoin market tends to reach a bottom when miners capitulate.

Miners often capitulate — or sell BTC — when Bitcoin becomes too expensive to mine relative to the cost of mining. That usually occurs when the price of Bitcoin goes through an intense correction where it nears or drops below the breakeven price of mining.

In his thesis published in October 2019, Edwards wrote:

“Because of the effect of negative sentiment and price action during deep bear markets and times of miner capitulation, the best time to buy Bitcoin is typically somewhere in the middle of the ‘miner capitulation’ period.”

Performance of Bitcoin following miner capitulation. Source: Charles Edwards

Performance of Bitcoin following miner capitulation. Source: Charles Edwards

The indicator evaluates market sentiment and potential miner capitulation by using the 1-month and 2-month simple moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate.

The Hash Ribbon likely occurred two times in 2020 due to the halving. Historically, the indicator did not light up more than a single time per year on average.

Before the May 11 halving, the indicator signaled that miners were selling. At the time, the breakeven cost of mining after the halving was still unclear, and the price trend of BTC price was uncertain. Going into the halving, the market sentiment was mixed as BTC/USD came off of an unprecedented correction to $3,600 in March.

But the rainy season in Sichuan led electricity costs in a region that’s home to major mining centers to substantially drop. Consequently, the cost of mining Bitcoin dropped to as low as $5,000 in some regions in Asia.

The Hash Ribbon indicator possibly reemerged as Bitcoin went through a record high difficulty adjustment.

Start of a new bull run?

The sentiment around the Bitcoin market remains divided. Some traders say that a short-term pullback is imminent. But others believe that, like in early 2018, an extended uptrend is brewing as investors are accumulating.

“We are in the BTC accumulation phase,” says CEO at blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju. “The 30- and 90-day moving average gap of all exchanges’ reserve represents the downside risk. It hit a record low in May this year and is still below zero.”

Miner BTC outflows Source: CryptoQuant

Miner BTC outflows Source: CryptoQuant

Nevertheless, analysts are optimistic about the Hash Ribbon indicator and its implications due to its historical accuracy.

Cryptocurrency trader and hedge fund manager Cantering Clark said:

“The fundamental stuff with regards to crypto is not in my wheelhouse. Going off my system still gets me behind the moves eventually. Can someone tell me though, why will this time be different for the Bitcoin Hash Ribbon Buy signal?”

The sample size of the indicator has been criticized in the past. Because the indicator tends to emerge once a year, there is a possibility that it merely follows the long-term price trend of BTC. An argument can be made that the indicator merely treads the upward movement of BTC over time.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-hash-ribbon-signal-confirms-great-bull-run-says-analyst

Blockchain

Bitcoin Escapes Stock Market Sell-Off on Booming Safe-Haven Appeal

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An overnight attempt to crash Bitcoin alongside the US stock market met with extreme resistance as the cryptocurrency bounced back handsomely.

The BTC/USD exchange rate lost $465, or 3.51 percent, after the New York opening bell Monday. The pair fell to as low as $12,785, only to find a considerably higher buying sentiment. As a result, BTC/USD rebounded almost instantly after touching the said local bottom, climbing back above $13,000 to reclaim the level as support.

Interestingly, the brief downside attempt in the Bitcoin market appeared almost in sync with a similar sell-off across the US stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 650 points, or 2.3 percent, logging its worst one-day decline since September 3, led by a drop in leisure and travel stocks.

cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, BTCUSD, XBTUSD, BTCUSDT, S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq

Bitcoin correlation with the Wall Street indexes and the US Dollar Index. Source: DXY on TradingView.com

Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-savvy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.9 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. Together, all three indexes were down more than 5 percent from their record peaks earlier this year.

Bitcoin Not Infected

The US stock market suffered pain as investors assessed the growing number of coronavirus cases in the country. The infections reached an all-time high of 68,767 on Monday. Additionally, scientists warned that a second way is due amid the coming winter season.

That is increasing worries about tighter lockdown restrictions and their impact on an already-suffering US economy.

Bitcoin and the US stock market could survive the first round of lockdowns because of the US government’s $3 trillion fiscal injections into the economy. Nevertheless, the situation is direr in current times. The first stimulus package stands dried, and the second one remains stuck amid a political battle between the Democrats and the Republicans in the US Congress.

Analysts believe no package will come up until the November 3 presidential election. That explains why investors are seeking safety outside equities.

Ronnie Moas, the founder of Standpoint Research, noted:

“BTC is now above where it was 24 hours ago, even though the Dow Jones dropped 640 points today. That is impressive, especially to those who (mistakenly) thought the two asset classes were correlated. Year-to-date, the US stock market is negative. BTC is +80%.”

Gold Correlation Back

The overnight sell-off and subsequent recovery in the Bitcoin market attest to the renewed demand. The cryptocurrency traded more in line with gold, a traditional rival asset, than with the risky stocks, showing that investors are beginning to explore its safe-haven characteristics.

cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, BTCUSD, XBTUSD, BTCUSDT, gold

Spot gold recovers on the line of Bitcoin after witnessing an early morning decline Monday. Source: XAUUSD on TradingView.com

The sentiment follows a JP Morgan report in which analysts treat Bitcoin as an alternative to gold among millennials. The study expects the cryptocurrency price to increase by 300 percent in the coming years.

That party explains Bitcoin’s ability to hold $10,300 as its interim support amid unsupportive fundamentals.

Source: https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-escapes-stock-market-sell-off-on-booming-safe-haven-appeal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bitcoin-escapes-stock-market-sell-off-on-booming-safe-haven-appeal

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Blockchain

ARK Investment Management Will Review its Distribution in US

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ARK Investment Management, LLC, a self-described “New York-based investment adviser focused solely on disruptive innovation,” has revealed “an important step toward strengthening its business and foundation for future growth,” according to a press release from the group.

“As part of this process, ARK has commenced a request for proposal (“RFP”) process to explore the potential replacement of Resolute Investment Distributors, Inc., an affiliate of ARK’s minority partner, Resolute Investment Managers, Inc., as a distributor of its U.S. retail and institutional products and services. Resolute Investment Distributors, Inc. will be considered in ARK’s evaluation and RFP process,” the release continues.

Speaking on the matter is ARK Founder, CEO, and CIO, Cathie Wood, who said:

“Since our founding in 2014, ARK has evolved a differentiated research and investment strategy that identifies technologically-enabled disruptive companies which, as reported by Morningstar, has resulted in top 1 percentile returns for multiple products over one, three, and five year periods. Thanks to our research and investing success, ARK now is one of the largest ETF issuers in the U.S. To maximize ARK’s potential, one of our priorities is to partner with shared-vision, best-in-class service providers.”

Source: https://insidebitcoins.com/news/ark-investment-management-will-review-its-distribution-in-us

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Blockchain

Bitcoin Will 10X Compared to Gold, Says JP Morgan

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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-will-10x-compared-gold-says-jp-morgan/

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